Most Disappointing Classes
Determining which recruiting class is the "most disappointing" is subjective. For more on the methodology I've used here, check out Best Classes. I'm simply reversing what I did to determine the best classes. Note that the rankings below are listed in opposite order from the Best Classes, ie, the lowest number is #1.
Top 1-100 Recruits
The 2000, 2003, and 1998 classes stand out in terms of having the worst overall Winning Percentage. The 2007 class is near the top, but I'll exclude them for now since that class has a couple years left to improve.
While the 2003 class has one of the worst winning percentages, it has the second most NBA Draft Picks. The 2000 class has both a low percentage and a low number of draft picks.
|
|
Top 100 Winning Percentage
| Class | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 1. |
2000 |
5,355 |
8,876 |
0.603 |
| 2. |
2003 |
5,472 |
8,652 |
0.632 |
| 3. |
1998 |
5,709 |
8,935 |
0.639 |
| 4. |
2007 |
3,191 |
4,936 |
0.646 |
| 5. |
1999 |
5,619 |
8,681 |
0.647 |
| 6. |
2001 |
6,027 |
9,297 |
0.648 |
| 7. |
2002 |
6,321 |
9,591 |
0.659 |
| 8. |
2004 |
6,047 |
9,119 |
0.663 |
| 9. |
2008 |
1,787 |
2,629 |
0.680 |
| 10. |
2005 |
5,739 |
8,405 |
0.683 |
| 11. |
2006 |
5,192 |
7,356 |
0.706 |
|
Top 100 NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage
| Class | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 1. |
2003 |
174 |
291 |
0.598 |
| 2. |
2000 |
193 |
319 |
0.605 |
| 3. |
2007 |
119 |
196 |
0.607 |
| 4. |
1998 |
241 |
396 |
0.609 |
| 5. |
2008 |
76 |
119 |
0.639 |
| 6. |
2004 |
275 |
430 |
0.640 |
| 7. |
2001 |
297 |
463 |
0.641 |
| 8. |
2002 |
301 |
468 |
0.643 |
| 9. |
2005 |
260 |
401 |
0.648 |
| 10. |
2006 |
293 |
440 |
0.666 |
| 11. |
1999 |
279 |
418 |
0.667 |
|
Top 100 NBA Draft Picks
|
Top 1-10 Recruits
As far as the Top 10 recruits for each class, 1998 and 2001 are a full 10 points worse than 2006 and 2005. The 2005 and 2006 Top 10 classes played a full 100-150 more games which means more of the top talent played in college, but still 10 points off is quite a bit. It is even more dramatic when you look at the NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage. The 1998 and 2001 classes played in a small number of NCAA Tourney games and their winning percentage was over 20 points below that of five other classes.
|
|
Top 10 Winning Percentage
| Class | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 1. |
1998 |
322 |
497 |
0.648 |
| 2. |
2001 |
321 |
484 |
0.663 |
| 3. |
2004 |
212 |
306 |
0.693 |
| 4. |
2003 |
364 |
518 |
0.703 |
| 5. |
1999 |
657 |
920 |
0.714 |
| 6. |
2007 |
288 |
403 |
0.715 |
| 7. |
2002 |
519 |
721 |
0.720 |
| 8. |
2000 |
442 |
597 |
0.740 |
| 9. |
2008 |
239 |
315 |
0.759 |
| 10. |
2006 |
490 |
642 |
0.763 |
| 11. |
2005 |
454 |
593 |
0.766 |
|
Top 10 NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage
| Class | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 1. |
2001 |
13 |
25 |
0.520 |
| 2. |
1998 |
16 |
29 |
0.552 |
| 3. |
2007 |
13 |
21 |
0.619 |
| 4. |
2003 |
23 |
36 |
0.639 |
| 5. |
1999 |
53 |
74 |
0.716 |
| 6. |
2006 |
41 |
57 |
0.719 |
| 7. |
2004 |
18 |
25 |
0.720 |
| 8. |
2008 |
18 |
25 |
0.720 |
| 9. |
2005 |
34 |
46 |
0.739 |
| 10. |
2000 |
39 |
51 |
0.765 |
| 11. |
2002 |
49 |
62 |
0.790 |
|
Top 10 NBA Draft Picks
|
Top 51-100 Recruits
The 51-100 recruit numbers aren't too far off the Top 100. 2000 and 2003 are still in the group with the lowest numbers with 2007 showing up again.
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|
Top 51-100 Winning Percentage
| Class | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 1. |
2000 |
2,636 |
4,473 |
0.589 |
| 2. |
2003 |
2,651 |
4,445 |
0.596 |
| 3. |
2007 |
1,374 |
2,229 |
0.616 |
| 4. |
1999 |
2,670 |
4,329 |
0.617 |
| 5. |
2002 |
3,052 |
4,864 |
0.627 |
| 6. |
1998 |
2,959 |
4,598 |
0.644 |
| 7. |
2004 |
3,224 |
4,993 |
0.646 |
| 8. |
2001 |
3,199 |
4,941 |
0.647 |
| 9. |
2005 |
2,970 |
4,436 |
0.670 |
| 10. |
2006 |
2,432 |
3,626 |
0.671 |
| 11. |
2008 |
805 |
1,198 |
0.672 |
|
Top 51-100 NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage
| Class | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 1. |
2007 |
30 |
58 |
0.517 |
| 2. |
2000 |
65 |
119 |
0.546 |
| 3. |
2002 |
98 |
175 |
0.560 |
| 4. |
2003 |
64 |
109 |
0.587 |
| 5. |
2004 |
118 |
199 |
0.593 |
| 6. |
2006 |
95 |
159 |
0.597 |
| 7. |
1998 |
110 |
182 |
0.604 |
| 8. |
2005 |
120 |
194 |
0.619 |
| 9. |
2001 |
145 |
233 |
0.622 |
| 10. |
2008 |
30 |
48 |
0.625 |
| 11. |
1999 |
111 |
170 |
0.653 |
|
Top 51-100 NBA Draft Picks
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Conclusions
As far as the Top 100 and 51-100 numbers, the 2000 class shows up in the top 3 (of the worst) for every category. That class clearly produced less wins and less NBA draft picks than any other class. Interestingly enough, the Top 10 of the 2000 class was one of the better performing groups.
The 2003 class comes in second behind 2000. That class is near the top in most of the categories (including Top 10).
Lastly, the 2007 class has some work to do if doesn't want to be on par with 2000 and 2003. Now that those players (that remain) are juniors I imagine their winning percentages will pick up.