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Most Disappointing Classes

Determining which recruiting class is the "most disappointing" is subjective. For more on the methodology I've used here, check out Best Classes. I'm simply reversing what I did to determine the best classes. Note that the rankings below are listed in opposite order from the Best Classes, ie, the lowest number is #1.

Top 1-100 Recruits

The 2000, 2003, and 1998 classes stand out in terms of having the worst overall Winning Percentage. The 2007 class is near the top, but I'll exclude them for now since that class has a couple years left to improve.

While the 2003 class has one of the worst winning percentages, it has the second most NBA Draft Picks. The 2000 class has both a low percentage and a low number of draft picks.

Top 100 Winning Percentage

ClassWinsGamesWin %
1. 2000 5,355 8,876 0.603
2. 2003 5,472 8,652 0.632
3. 1998 5,709 8,935 0.639
4. 2007 3,191 4,936 0.646
5. 1999 5,619 8,681 0.647
6. 2001 6,027 9,297 0.648
7. 2002 6,321 9,591 0.659
8. 2004 6,047 9,119 0.663
9. 2008 1,787 2,629 0.680
10. 2005 5,739 8,405 0.683
11. 2006 5,192 7,356 0.706
Top 100 NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage

ClassWinsGamesWin %
1. 2003 174 291 0.598
2. 2000 193 319 0.605
3. 2007 119 196 0.607
4. 1998 241 396 0.609
5. 2008 76 119 0.639
6. 2004 275 430 0.640
7. 2001 297 463 0.641
8. 2002 301 468 0.643
9. 2005 260 401 0.648
10. 2006 293 440 0.666
11. 1999 279 418 0.667
Top 100 NBA Draft Picks

ClassPicksYears Per Player
1. 2008 4   0.88
2. 2007 20   1.64
3. 2000 20   3.15
4. 2006 22   2.41
5. 2005 24   2.90
6. 2001 25   3.22
7. 2002 28   3.32
8. 1998 29   3.06
9. 1999 33   2.95
10. 2003 34   3.05
11. 2004 40   3.07
Top 1-10 Recruits

As far as the Top 10 recruits for each class, 1998 and 2001 are a full 10 points worse than 2006 and 2005. The 2005 and 2006 Top 10 classes played a full 100-150 more games which means more of the top talent played in college, but still 10 points off is quite a bit. It is even more dramatic when you look at the NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage. The 1998 and 2001 classes played in a small number of NCAA Tourney games and their winning percentage was over 20 points below that of five other classes.

Top 10 Winning Percentage

ClassWinsGamesWin %
1. 1998 322 497 0.648
2. 2001 321 484 0.663
3. 2004 212 306 0.693
4. 2003 364 518 0.703
5. 1999 657 920 0.714
6. 2007 288 403 0.715
7. 2002 519 721 0.720
8. 2000 442 597 0.740
9. 2008 239 315 0.759
10. 2006 490 642 0.763
11. 2005 454 593 0.766
Top 10 NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage

ClassWinsGamesWin %
1. 2001 13 25 0.520
2. 1998 16 29 0.552
3. 2007 13 21 0.619
4. 2003 23 36 0.639
5. 1999 53 74 0.716
6. 2006 41 57 0.719
7. 2004 18 25 0.720
8. 2008 18 25 0.720
9. 2005 34 46 0.739
10. 2000 39 51 0.765
11. 2002 49 62 0.790
Top 10 NBA Draft Picks

ClassPicksYears Per Player
1. 2008 4   0.90
2. 1999 7   2.90
3. 1998 7   1.80
4. 2003 8   1.70
5. 2002 8   2.30
6. 2007 8   1.20
7. 2005 9   1.80
8. 2004 9   1.00
9. 2001 9   1.50
10. 2000 9   1.80
11. 2006 10   1.90
Top 51-100 Recruits

The 51-100 recruit numbers aren't too far off the Top 100. 2000 and 2003 are still in the group with the lowest numbers with 2007 showing up again.

Top 51-100 Winning Percentage

ClassWinsGamesWin %
1. 2000 2,636 4,473 0.589
2. 2003 2,651 4,445 0.596
3. 2007 1,374 2,229 0.616
4. 1999 2,670 4,329 0.617
5. 2002 3,052 4,864 0.627
6. 1998 2,959 4,598 0.644
7. 2004 3,224 4,993 0.646
8. 2001 3,199 4,941 0.647
9. 2005 2,970 4,436 0.670
10. 2006 2,432 3,626 0.671
11. 2008 805 1,198 0.672
Top 51-100 NCAA Tourney Winning Percentage

ClassWinsGamesWin %
1. 2007 30 58 0.517
2. 2000 65 119 0.546
3. 2002 98 175 0.560
4. 2003 64 109 0.587
5. 2004 118 199 0.593
6. 2006 95 159 0.597
7. 1998 110 182 0.604
8. 2005 120 194 0.619
9. 2001 145 233 0.622
10. 2008 30 48 0.625
11. 1999 111 170 0.653
Top 51-100 NBA Draft Picks

ClassPicksYears Per Player
1. 2008 0   0.85
2. 2007 2   1.60
3. 2000 3   3.30
4. 2006 3   2.52
5. 2001 4   3.59
6. 2005 4   3.10
7. 1999 8   3.06
8. 2002 9   3.50
9. 1998 9   3.20
10. 2004 10   3.38
11. 2003 11   3.22
Conclusions

As far as the Top 100 and 51-100 numbers, the 2000 class shows up in the top 3 (of the worst) for every category. That class clearly produced less wins and less NBA draft picks than any other class. Interestingly enough, the Top 10 of the 2000 class was one of the better performing groups.

The 2003 class comes in second behind 2000. That class is near the top in most of the categories (including Top 10).

Lastly, the 2007 class has some work to do if doesn't want to be on par with 2000 and 2003. Now that those players (that remain) are juniors I imagine their winning percentages will pick up.