by: Adrian

Here at StatSheet, we are striving to bring you the most thorough and informative college basketball coverage on the planet. So, in addition to what's commonly contained within the traditional box score, we'll be leveraging our extensive database of play-by-plays in order to create metrics that enhance the analytical landscape. Using Kentucky as an example, let's introduce a few of these play-by-play-generated statistics.

Dunks:

• Anthony Davis: 96
• Terrence Jones: 57
• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: 34
• Darius Miller: 9
• Marquis Teague: 7
• Eloy Vargas: 2

Davis, StatSheet's top-ranked player, did much of his offensive damage above the rim. Nearly half (46%) of his 210 made field goals were of the rim-rattling variety. The Wildcats were essentially a three-headed dunking monster: Davis, along with fellow frontcourt starters Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist, accounted for 91% of UK's 205 dunks on the team's march to the title.

Put-backs/tip-ins:

• Davis: 50-68 (73.5%)
• Jones: 30-62 (48.4%)
• Kidd-Gilchrist: 20-41 (48.8%)
• Miller: 12-19 (63.2%)
• Kyle Wiltjer: 7-15 (46.7%)
• Vargas: 4-14 (28.6%)
• Doron Lamb: 3-9 (33.3%)
• Teague: 4-6 (66.7%)
• Twany Beckham: 0-1 (0.0%)

When we think of shot creation, we most commonly think of using the dribble to manufacture one's own scoring chances. However, another way to effectively create offense is by crashing the offensive backboards. Put-backs are defined as field goal attempts that come immediately following one's own offensive rebound. That is, second-chance opportunities that occur after a teammate's offensive board are not included in this category. The ultra-efficient Davis excelled in this area, converting 74% of his 68 put-back attempts. The rest of Kentucky's roster made just 48% of its 167 put-backs last season.

"And-1's" Drawn:

• Kidd-Gilchrist: 19 (converted 11 by making the free throw)
• Jones: 17 (11)
• Davis: 13 (10)
• Lamb: 12 (12)
• Miller: 10 (5)
• Teague: 7 (3)
• Vargas: 1 (0)

Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky's super-physical and aggressive freshman phenom, paced the 'Cats by drawing 19 "and-1" chances. His ability to finish through contact at the rim made him a handful to contain for most small forwards on the college level. Doron Lamb deserves special recognition for converting all 12 of his "and-1" opportunities (i.e., he knocked in his free throw to finalize the old-fashioned 3-point play).

Offensive Fouls Committed:

• Kidd-Gilchrist: 25
• Teague: 14
• Miller: 11
• Wiltjer: 8
• Lamb: 8 
• Jones: 7
• Davis: 7
• Vargas: 1
• Jarrod Polson: 1

Speaking of "physical and agressive," Kidd-Gilchrist easily paced Kentucky in offensive fouls committed. While his playing style was clearly a net positive for the 'Cats, it did have a few negative side effects as well.

Shots Blocked:

• Jones: 32
• Kidd-Gilchrist: 28
• Teague: 25
• Lamb: 16
• Davis: 11
• Miller: 7
• Vargas: 6
• Wiltjer: 5
• Sam Malone: 2
• Beckham: 1

While blocked shots are sexier and more recognized from a defensive perspective, the ability to avoid having one's shot blocked in the offensive paint is also an important skill. Davis, who blocked 186 of his opponents' shots, had only 11 of his own rejected last season. Couching this metric as ShotsBlocked% (i.e., the percentage of one's own 2-point shots that he has blocked), we can see just how much Davis excelled in this area (especially when compared to his frontcourt peers like Jones, Vargas, and Kidd-Gilchrist).

ShotsBlocked%:

• Davis: 3.5%
• Miller: 4.6%
• Wiltjer: 6.2%
• Lamb: 7.8%
• Teague: 9.2%
• Kidd-Gilchrist: 10.2%
• Jones: 10.5%
• Vargas: 17.1%

This is just a sampling of the types of metrics that can be calulated using play-by-play logs. There are also many interesting analyses that can be conducted at the team level. Leveraging its extensive library of play-by-plays, StatSheet hopes to roll out this type of data for all 345 D-I teams in its network over the next few months.     

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by: Adrian Atkinson

Under Roy Williams, North Carolina consistently has ranked among the nation's leaders in scoring average and tempo (possessions per 40 minutes). Fueled by the secondary break, his offensive philoshophy is predicated on pushing pace to maximize the Tar Heels' (general) advantages in athleticism and depth. Increasing the number of possessions can also result in decreasing the likelihood of an upset at the hands of an undermanned and overmatched foe.

By breaking down possessions by shot clock segment (i.e., length of possession), we can better understand the advantage that Williams's Heels have in the early offense. Table 1 shows UNC's possessions as a function of length.

Table 1: UNC Possessions by Shot Clock Segment

Table 2 presents the same data for North Carolina's opponents.

Table 2: UNC Opponents' Possessions by Shot Clock Segment

To summzarize the data contained in Tables 1 and 2:

1. UNC used 63% of its possessions within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (i.e., early offense). Its opponents used just 39% of theirs in the first 10 seconds. UNC used just 11% of all possessions in the final half of the clock (seconds 19-35); its opponents used 27% in seconds 19-35.
2. Both UNC and its opponents draw fouls at nearly twice the rate in the early offense. Attacking transitioning/unset defenses is a great way to earn trips to the charity stripe.
3. UNC turned the ball over significantly more in seconds 1-10 than it did in seconds 11-35 (its opponents did not). This is simply the cost of doing business early in the clock/pushing tempo.
4. UNC's opponents actually had a larger "early offense premium" than the Heels did. While UNC was 14.5% more efficient in seconds 1-10 (117.8 vs. 102.9 in seconds 11-35), its opponents were actually 24.6% were efficient (105.3 vs. 84.5). Trying to score against John Henson and Tyler Zeller in the halfcourt was a losing proposition for most Tar Heel opponents. Also, UNC's propensity to crash the offensive glass with four men makes them susceptible to allowing transition hoops.

Over the course of 38 games, Roy Williams's club outscored its opponents 2,030 to 1,127 in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock-- an early-offense per-game advantage of 53.4 to 29.7. The Heels were outscored 1,422 to 1,061 (37.4 to 27.9) in seconds 11-35 of the clock-- not surprisingly, of course, since they used only 37% of total possessions in these situations as contrasted to 61% for their opponents.

The above data certainly fortify Roy Williams's core offensive philosophy. It is easier to score in transition than it is against set defenses, and teams that maximize their opportunities in the early offense figure to get more easy scoring chances than their opponents.

The next step for StatSheet is to extend this type of analysis to all 345 Division-I teams. Which teams strike most frequently in the early offense? Which ones do so most efficiently? Which teams are the best in the halfcourt? Using StatSheet's extensive library of play-by-play data, the answers to these questions (and many more) might soon be at our fingertips.

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by: Adrian Atkinson

As sports fans know, not all minutes are created equal and, in basketball, not all field goal attempts are created equal. Among players, coaches, and fans alike, performing in the clutch will always hold a certain cachet. And, while study after study has shown clutchness to be a non-repeatable skill (i.e., a player's clutch performance in one season is not predictive of his clutch performance in the following season), we'll forever lionize those athletes who got the big hit or knocked down the game-winning shot on the grandest of stages. Unlike in baseball (where clutch opportunities are constrained by the batting order), a basketball coach has much greater control over how crunch-time usage is allocated. In that sense (even if you're in the camp that believes clutch performance is not a repeatable skill), just knowing how close-and-late shots are distributed can be valuable data.

The following table summarizes the clutch statistics for the 2011-12 North Carolina Tar Heels. For the sake of this analysis, a clutch possession is defined as one in the last five minutes of regulation (or overtime) with a margin of less than or equal to seven points. In the future, StatSheet can use win probability data or its "lead safeness" metric to determine a player's performance in high-leverage vs. low-leverage situations.

Barnes, a close-and-late superstar as a freshman, struggled in those situations as a sophomore (additional evidence that clutchness is not a repeatable/predictive skill). Still, during his clutch minutes, he attempted 40.1% of UNC's shots-- solid proof that he was viewed as Roy Williams's go-to scorer. Marshall played in 100% of Carolina's crunch-time minutes until a fractured wrist ended his season in the NCAA Tournament Round of 32.

North Carolina's most-used clutch line-ups during the 2011-12 season were:

• Marshall-Bullock-Barnes-Henson-Zeller: 19.1 minutes (led 39-33)
• White-Bullock-Barnes-Henson-Zeller: 11.3 minutes (led 21-14)
• Marshall-Bullock-Barnes-McAdoo-Zeller: 6.0 minutes (led 13-12)

In addition to clutch data, StatSheet hopes to introduce other splits (by month, caliber of opponent, etc.) soon for every Division I team. Which player had the best field goal percentage in  the clutch? Who performed the best against top 50 competition? Which players had the largest "wins vs. losses" performance gap? StatSheet hopes to answer all of these questions and many more once its player splits and sortable leaderboards are added to the site.   

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by Mitch Fortner (@mitchfortner21)

Robert Griffin III is the most explosive runner at quarterback to come out of college since Michael Vick in 2001. That, however, is where the comparisons end. When it comes to the primary job of a QB, throwing the football, comparing Griffin III to Vick is like comparing apples to oranges. But I'll do it anyways, because others have felt the need to make the comparison. 

For the purpose of this exercise I am not going to factor in rushing statistics. They are both electric runners with world-class speed who have the ability to put an offense on their back using just their legs. This, however, is about the quarterback position, where the goal is still, and will always be, to get the offense down the field using your arm. 

As a freshman, Michael Vick was able to use his skills to lead Virginia Tech to a National Championship appearance vs. Florida State. No small feat for a freshman quarterback. He finished the season with 2065 yards passing, 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He completed 58% of his passes. 

In Vick’s second and final year, he regressed, completing just 54% of his passes for 1234 yards, 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. 

As a freshman, Robert Griffin III completed 59.9% of his passes for 2091 yards, 15 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. After a knee injury in 2009 derailed his season, Griffin returned in 2010 to throw for 3501 yards, 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, while completing 67% of his passes. 

Before moving on to Griffin III’s final season at Baylor, let’s compare his first two years to Vick’s only two years at Virginia Tech. Some things stand out:

• Griffin progressed. Vick regressed. While Griffin lost a year due to injury, it is hard to see how his year spent rehabbing a torn ACL gave him any type of advantage over Vick. Griffin, at no point in his four years at Baylor, ever regressed; the same can’t be said for Vick. 

• As a sophomore Vick got worse throwing the football with accuracy. As a pro, it took him until he reached Philadelphia before he displayed any type of ability to throw on target consistently. In his second season, Griffin completed 67% of his passes, displaying precision throwing the football in the pocket, down the field, and on the run. 

• Griffin is a throw first, run second QB. Vick was run first and throw second. 1234 yards passing as a sophomore suggests Beamer and co. preferred Vick manage the game through the air and do his damage on the ground. Griffin proved he was equally as, if not more, dangerous with his arm. 

• Vick left college and went to the NFL. Griffin returned for not only his best year, but also one of the best years ever for a college QB, earning the Heisman Trophy. 

Because RGIII burst onto the scene in 2011-12, throwing for 4293 yards, 37 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while completing 72.4% of his passes on his way to leading the Baylor Bears to a 10-3 record, many feel he was a one year wonder. When in fact, he showed steady growth, progressing statistically from year to year. This is the polar opposite of Michael Vick, a player who relied on his athleticism during his time at VT and during his time with the Atlanta Falcons.

Intangibles (leadership, work ethic, maturity, etc.) and height/overall size are the other big factors when looking for a franchise QB. Because both players’ stories are well known, there is no need to go into this. You and I both know who gets the check mark in the intangibles box. As for size, Vick checks in at 6'0, 215, while Griffin is 6'2 3/8, 231 lbs. A pretty significant difference.  

On draft day 2012, many may compare the explosiveness of RGIII to Michael Vick, but don’t fall into that trap. Robert Griffin III and Michael Vick are two completely different quarterbacks … they just both happen to run fast. 

Mitch is a Sports Data Analyst with StatSheet.com and can be reached on Twitter @mitchfortner21 or by e-mail: mitch@statsheet.com

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by Ben Bruning (@NCSUalum)

If you haven't checked it out yet, stat.us might just be the coolest site for sports fans on the internet.  It's literally a gateway to all the live, automatically-updating stats that one could ask for.  Fans can follow their favorite teams and players to receive a continual stream of statistics, play-by-play, and analysis via Twitter.

Up to this point we had the ability to track NBA and NFL players, but MLB players were left out in the cold.

With the Major League Baseball season beginning this month, we felt it absolutely necessary to add our national pastime into the stat.us mix.  Baseball is a sport where all stats matter, and allowing fans everywhere access to their favorite players is a big priority for us.  MLB players are now here.  The link for this new page is here.

Wouldn't it be nice if your fantasy baseball service provider could tweet out your team's updates directly to you? One of the best uses of MLB + stat.us will be the ability to customize your own Twitter Fantasy Tracker.  With just a few clicks of the mouse we can automatically create a Twitter list of your entire fantasy team.  It's on the stat.us home page and will look something like this:

In addition to all of these great features, make sure to check out two very popular hashtags: #ExtraInningTracker and #HRTracker.  These tags make it easy for anyone to get updates when 9 Innings aren't enough or whenever a bomb leaves the ballpark.

Enjoy the service and let us know if you have any suggestions for new MLB player accounts you'd like to see or any other ideas.

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by Ben Bruning (@NCSUalum)

Using Statistical Performance To Determine NFL Team Needs

32 organizations make the National Football League an ever-moving, always-changing association.  Teams are constantly measuring themselves against others in their division, their conference, and against the league as a whole.

Now that the Draft is here, we should take a statistical look into what happened in 2011.  By sorting the numbers, we can analyze whether a team should go offense or defense with their pick.  We can then go even deeper than that, and see if that team should improve their offensive passing or rush defense, etc...

To analyze 2011, we'll start by dissecting statistical rankings by team.  It would be naive for us to just look at end-of-year stat totals.  Inept offenses can keep defenses on the field too long and weak defenses can make teams air it out, boosting their total yardage while nixing the run game.

Let's combine two simple stats to measure performance.  On offense, we'll take the team's Yards-Per-Play (YPP) Rank and average it out with their Offensive Scoring Rank (defensive or return TDs and safeties don't count).  On defense, we'll average a team's Yards-Allowed-Per-Play Rank with their Points-Allowed Rank.  These new values will be called O-Rate and D-Rate, and represent a fair mix of overall production a) throughout the season (YPP) and b) when it matters most (TDs).

Example:

In 2011, Carolina's offense generated 6.2 YPP, ranking them 4th overall in the NFL.  They were also effective in scoring, putting up 406 points from offensive plays, good enough to rank 5th overall in the league.

By averaging these two rankings (4 + 5), we come up with an O-Rate of 4.5 for the Panthers.

Compare this with Carolina's D-Rate of 28.5, and it's safe to say the Panthers should look at improving the defense.

Free Agency

A few really big names hit the market this offseason, which means some teams' priorities might have shifted.  Free agent signings can provide good hints about what a team probably won't do in the early rounds of the draft.  We can take note of the additions expected to start or see a lot of time on the field (such as a slot WR, 3rd down RB, or a 3rd down pass-rusher).  Peyton Manning and Mario Williams obviously fit this category, but so do Brandon Jacobs and Pierre Garcon.  

For example, in 2010 the Philadelphia Eagles had an O-Rate of 3 and a D-Rate of 18.5.  However, after a boatload of defensive additions (Asomugha, Jenkins, Babin, Hargrove, Rodgers-Cromartie) the Eagles decided they should invest on the offensive side of the ball (Watkins, G, Baylor).

Baltimore had a 2010 O-Rate of 19.5 and a D-Rate of 4.5 but lost two key defensive backs to free agency (F. Washington and D. Landry).  The Ravens selected CB Jimmy Smith with the 27th overall pick.

Projected impact FA's who had little or no statistical value last season (Peyton Manning, Matt Flynn, Randy Moss) won't count as "Losses" for their old teams, as they did not affect their previous team's stat rankings.  They will count as "Additions" for their new teams.

Okay, so what do the results look like?

Here's the list of teams with First Round draft choices, along with their needs:

1. Colts

O-Rate: 28.5

D-Rate: 25

Offensive Additions: C (Steele) G (McGlynn)

Offensive Losses: C (Saturday), WR (Garcon), TE (Tamme) TE (Clark) T (Diem) QB (Painter)

Defensive Additions: DE (Redding) S (Zbikowski)

Defensive Losses: LB (Brackett) DE (Anderson)

Digging Deeper:  Starting fresh at QB is justified for the Colts.  Their O-Rate is worse than their D-Rate, and their passing attack was dismal in 2011.  Indy was ranked 29th in both Passing Yards Per Attempt (PYPA) and Passing TDs.

And The Pick Will Be: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

2. Redskins

O-Rate: 22.5

D-Rate: 19

Offensive Additions: WR (Garcon), WR (Morgan)

Offensive Losses: none

Defensive Additions: FS (Meriweather) CB (Griffin)

Defensive Losses: SS (Landry) FS (Atogwe)

Digging Deeper: Like the Colts, Washington needs help with their O-Rate.  Unlike the Colts, Washington statistically needs more help running the ball than passing.  Their Yard-Per-Carry rank was 21st and Rushing TD rank was 26.  Their Passing YPP was 19th and Passing TD rank was 23rd.  RGIII will provide a boost to both passing and rushing.

And The Pick Will Be: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

3. Vikings

O-Rate: 16.5

D-Rate: 26

Offensive Additions: G (Schwartz), TE (Carlson) WR (Simpson)

Offensive Losses: G (Hutchinson) G (Herrera)

Defensive Additions: CB (Carr)

Defensive Losses: CB (Griffin) 

Digging Deeper: A lot of folks seem convinced that the Vikings will select offensive tackle Matt Kalil with the 3rd pick.  The numbers suggest that Minnesota needs help defensively, with a significantly low D-Rate.  Their front 7 on defense is a solid against the run as can be, ranking 6th in the league in both Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt and Rushing TDs Allowed.  Their secondary is atrocious, ranking 30th in Pass Yards Allowed Per Attempt, and dead last in Passing TDs Allowed.

And The Pick Will Be:  Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

4. Browns

O-Rate: 30

D-Rate: 7

Offensive Additions: none

Offensive Losses: RB (Hillis) OT (Pashos)

Defensive Additions: DE (Rucker) DE (Parker)

Defensive Losses: S (Adams)

Digging Deeper: Cleveland has one of the best defensive units in the league.  They will not go defense with this pick, nor should they with their other first round selection, number 22 overall.  One could argue that the Browns had the worst ground attack in the entire NFL last year, ranking dead last in Rushing TDs and second to last in Yards Per Carry.  From a statistical standpoint, there should be little debate here.  Alabama's Trent Richardson will be the choice and the new face of the franchise.

And The Pick Will Be: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

5. Buccaneers

O-Rate: 21.5

D-Rate: 32

Offensive Additions: G (Nicks) WR (Jackson)

Offensive Losses: C (Faine)

Defensive Additions: CB (Wright) DT (Okoye)

Defensive Losses: FS (Jackson)

Digging Deeper: The Buccaneers made some major moves in free agency, primarily on the offensive side of the ball.  The team needs defensive playmakers, as they were dead last in total D-Rate.  Tampa Bay was second to last in Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt and Rushing Yards Allowed Per Attempt.  They were 29th overall in Passing TDs Allowed and 32nd in Rushing TDs Allowed.  They need defensive playmakers badly and if Claiborne goes to the Vikings then we will see the Bucs attempt to trade down.  There is good defensive value all over the first few rounds.

And The Pick Will Be: Matt Kalil, OT, USC (just not by the Buccaneers)

6. Rams

O-Rate: 31.5

D-Rate: 22.5

Offensive Additions: C (Wells) WR (Smith)

Offensive Losses: WR (Lloyd)

Defensive Additions: CB (Finnegan) DE (Langford) LB (Dunbar)

Defensive Losses: LB (Chamberlain)

Digging Deeper: The Rams had the worst O-Rate of any NFL team last season, primarily because of the passing game.  The defense isn't exactly great, but look for Coach Fisher to solve those problems down the road.  St Louis had the least Passing TDs in the league and the third-worst Passing Yards Per Attempt average.  After losing Brandon Lloyd, the Rams are primed to go Wide Receiver here.  The addition of Steve Smith helps, but he's at best a number 2.  Expect them to take Blackmon here or trade down for a second time to grab Michael Floyd or Kendall Wright.

And The Pick Will Be: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

7. Jaguars

O-Rate: 30.5

D-Rate: 9.5

Offensive Additions: QB (Henne) WR (Robinson) WR (Evans)

Offensive Losses: none

Defensive Additions: CB (Ross)

Defensive Losses: DT (Douzable)

Digging Deeper: A lot of mock drafts seem to have the Jaguars going defense here.  The stats show otherwise.  Jacksonville needs some serious help on the offensive side of the ball.  They were dead last in Passing Yards Per Attempt and second to last in Passing TDs.  Laurent Robinson doesn't seem like a number one WR.  If Blackmon is available, he is the pick.  If he's not, look for the Jags to decide between Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, or offensive tackle Riley Reiff.  Any of these three should make Gabbert, MJD, and Jaguar fans a bit happier.

And The Pick Will Be: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

8. Dolphins

O-Rate: 20.5

D-Rate: 9.5

Offensive Additions: QB (Garrard) G (Hicks)

Offensive Losses: QB (Henne) WR (Marshall)

Defensive Additions: LB (Westerman) CB (Marshall)

Defensive Losses: DE (Langford) LB (Taylor)

Digging Deeper: Miami's personnel situation is disturbing, but statistically the defense wasn't too terrible.  Help could arguably be used anywhere, but the most glaring needs are on the offensive side of the ball.  With Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall, Miami's Passing Yards Per Attempt was 14th overall and their Passing TDs total ranked 18th.  With both of them gone, Miami has hit the reset button.  Just like the Titans with Jake Locker last year, look for the QB of the future to be selected here at number 8.

And The Pick Will Be: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

9. Panthers

O-Rate: 4.5

D-Rate: 28.5

Offensive Additions: RB (Tolbert) G (Pollak)

Offensive Losses: G (Schwartz) G (Wharton)

Defensive Additions: S (Smith)

Defensive Losses: LB (Connor)

Digging Deeper: With Steve Smith aging and other WR's playing inconsistently, some mock drafts have shown Carolina going WR here.  Statistically, that would be a near-waste of a pick, as it would be really tough to get a much better O-Rate than 4.5.  Defense is what kept the Panthers from winning last year, and should be top priority.  Carolina was dead last in Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt.  They were 25th in both Rushing Yards Allowed Per Carry and Passing TDs Allowed.  They were 29th in Rushing TDs Allowed.  If the right offer was there, the Panthers would be smart to trade this pick, as there is good defensive Front-7 depth later on in the round.  There aren't many available players here to justify that offer, so look for the Panthers to complement their 2011 investment, Charles Johnson.

And The Pick Will Be: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

10. Bills

O-Rate: 15

D-Rate: 29

Offensive Additions: none

Offensive Losses: OT (Bell)

Defensive Additions: DE (Williams) DE (Anderson)

Defensive Losses: none

Digging Deeper: Statistically, one would initially assume that defense would be the pick, as the Bills were surprisingly effective on offense last season.  Buffalo had the 4th highest Yards Per Carry average in the NFL, and were in the top-half of the league when it comes to Passing TDs (10th) and Rushing TDs (16th).  However, Mario Williams and Mark Anderson represent significant upgrades to a defense that ranked 29th in Passing TDs Allowed and 30th in Rushing TDs Allowed.  An addition to the defensive Back-7 could be warranted, but the remaining talent available would be overpaying at 10.  The loss of Bell on the offensive line is big.  The Bills invested quite a lot in their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and saw him lead the Bills' passing attack to the 21st most Passing Yards Per Attempt.  Buffalo should protect their investment.

And The Pick Will Be: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

11. Chiefs

O-Rate: 28.5

D-Rate: 13.5

Offensive Additions: OT (Winston) RB (Hillis) TE (Boss) QB (Quinn)

Offensive Losses: QB (Orton) RB (Battle) RB (Jones) RB (McClain) TE (Pope)

Defensive Additions: CB (Routt)

Defensive Losses: CB (Carr) LB (Williams)

Digging Deeper: The Chiefs were pretty good on defense last year, but losing Brandon Carr is a big blow.  KC gave up the 23rd most Passing Yards Per Attempt, and it doesn't look like that number will improve.  On the other hand, their offensive air attack was pedestrian at best.  Combining Hills with a healthy Jamaal Charles could open up some throwing lanes, but Matt Cassel seems to be underwhelming as a franchise QB.  If Tannehill falls this far, the Chiefs should snag him.  If not, look for Kansas City to take the best defensive Back-7 player available.

And The Pick Will Be: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

12. Seahawks

O-Rate: 25

D-Rate: 7

Offensive Additions: QB (Flynn)

Offensive Losses: TE (Carlson) G (Gallery)

Defensive Additions: DE (Jones)

Defensive Losses: LB (Hawthorne) CB (Trufant)

Digging Deeper: Pete Carroll turned the Seahawks defense into a formidable unit last season.  Their D-Rate of 7 represented the sixth highest value in the entire NFL.  Where Seattle needs help is on the offensive side of the ball.  Marshawn Lynch helped the team record the 10th most Rushing TDs last year, but that's about the only positive note.  The Seahawks had the 20th most Passing Yards Per Attempt, the 28th most Passing TDs, and the 21st most Yards Per Carry.  All of those factors led to the team signing another free agent QB this year, Matt Flynn.  Sidney Rice and Golden Tate are decent receivers here, but Seattle could use some help in the slot.  Carroll could get risky with this pick and choose whoever remains out of Blackmon, Wright, and Floyd, or he could be conservative and bolster the offensive line.  There is WR value in this draft.  O-line is the choice.

And The Pick Will Be: David DeCastro, G, Stanford

13. Cardinals

O-Rate: 21.5

D-Rate: 13.5

Offensive Additions: G (Snyder)

Offensive Losses: OT (Brown) G (Lutui)

Defensive Additions: CB (Gay)

Defensive Losses: CB (Marshall) LB (Porter) S (Considine)

Digging Deeper: Arizona finished on a high note last year, winning 7 of their last 9 games.  Their O-Rate and D-Rate were both mediocre, with the defensive performance surprising some folks.  The Cardinals were 5th overall in Passing TDs Allowed and 12th in Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt.  Their rush defense was porous at times, allowing the 23rd most Rushing TDs in 2011.  Look for Arizona to put one more year of faith in Kolb, Fitzgerald, Wells, and crew.  Todd Haley's defense alternates between 3-4 and 4-3, and he'll want a playmaker who can adapt to both.  Look for defensive Front-7 help here.

And The Pick Will Be: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

14. Cowboys

O-Rate: 10

D-Rate: 20

Offensive Additions: G (Bernadeau) G (Livings)

Offensive Losses: WR (Robinson) TE (Bennett)

Defensive Additions: CB (Carr) LB (Connor)

Defensive Losses:  CB (Newman) LB (James)

Digging Deeper: With the exception of Rushing TDs, Dallas nearly had an elite offense in 2011.  The Cowboys were top-10 in Passing Yards Per Attempt (10th), Passing TDs (5th), and Yards Per Carry (9th).  When they got near the goal line, however, the rushing attack sputtered.  They had 5 Rushing TDs last year, only one ahead of NFL bottom-dweller Cleveland (4).  Offensive line is an area where Dallas could improve, but if DeCastro is already off the board then it's hard to see them reaching this high for Peter Konz or Cordy Glenn.  The 'Boys had trouble stopping the pass last year, ranking 24th overall in Passing Yards Allowed Per Attempt.  By adding another defensive back to help out Carr, Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware should have more time to get to the QB.

And The Pick Will Be: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

15. Eagles

O-Rate: 7

D-Rate: 11

Offensive Additions: OT (Bell)

Offensive Losses: OT (Peters) WR (Smith)

Defensive Additions: LB (Ryans)

Defensive Losses: DE (Parker)

Digging Deeper: The Eagles were a paradox in 2011.  Statistically, they appear to be a very good team, with an O-Rate of 7 and a D-Rate of 11.  When you investigate a bit more, you see some flaws arise.  The team was 24th overall in Passing TDs Allowed and 19th overall in Yards Per Carry Allowed.  Combine those two figures with average Passing Yards Per Attempt Allowed (rank 16th) and Rushing TDs Allowed (15th) and you've got problems in the NFC East.  Andy Reid should go defense with this pick.  The secondary was heavily revamped last offseason, and Philly just traded for DeMeco Ryans.  Defensive line is this year's priority.

And The Pick Will Be: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

16. Jets

O-Rate: 21.5

D-Rate: 12.5

Offensive Additions: QB (Tebow)

Offensive Losses: WR (Burress)

Defensive Additions: S (Landry)

Defensive Losses: S (Leonhard)

Digging Deeper: The Jets once again relied heavily on their defense in 2011.  The stats tell it all.  New York's offense was able to put up the 9th most Passing TDs and 12th most Rushing TDs despite accumulating only the 26th most Passing Yards Per Attempt and 29th highest Yards Per Carry Average.  Sanchez and crew were the the benefactors of some very good field positions.  Unfortunately, Tim Tebow is not going to significantly improve any of those offenisve stats.  If he does see playing time then that Passing TD figure is bound to drop.  Considering Plaxico Burress is gone, Santonio Holmes could use another WR weapon to help move the ball.  The best remaining wideout will be the choice here.

And The Pick Will Be: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor 

17. Bengals

O-Rate: 20.5

D-Rate: 6.5

Offensive Additions: G (Wharton) RB (Green-Ellis)

Offensive Losses: G (Livings) G (McGlynn) RB (Benson) WR (Caldwell) WR (Simpson)

Defensive Additions: CB (Newman) DE (Harvey) DE (Anderson) CB (Allen)

Defensive Losses: DE (Rucker) LB (Rivers)

Digging Deeper: Statistically, the Bengals need some help on offense.  Dalton and crew had the 24th highest Passing Yards Per Attempt, while Cedric Benson led a mediocre rushing attack that was 26th in Yards Per Carry and 21st in Rushing TDs.  The defense was solid last year, holding QBs to the 9th lowest Passing Yards Per Attempt and also the 9th fewest Passing TDs.  With lots of defensive value still on the board, expect Cincinnati to add some offensive support here.

And The Pick Will Be: Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia

18. Chargers

O-Rate: 6

D-Rate: 23.5

Offensive Additions: WR (Meacham) WR (Royal) TE (Rosario) RB (McClain)

Offensive Losses: WR (Jackson) RB (Tolbert) G (Dielman)

Defensive Additions: LB (Johnson) LB (Williams)

Defensive Losses: S (Gregory)

Digging Deeper: The Chargers can point to the defense when it comes to 2011's woes.  Philip Rivers led San Diego to another stellar offensive year with a top-5 O-Rate.  Losing Tolbert and Jackson hurts, but fixing the D has to be priority number one.  When you look at the numbers, the Chargers had the definition of a "Bend but not Break" defense in 2011.  They gave up the 3rd fewest Rushing TDs and 8th fewest Passing TDs, but opposing teams kept that high-powered offense off the field too often.  Overall, San Diego's defense allowed the 28th most Passing Yards Per Attempt and 20th most Yards Per Carry.  Pass defense is the glaring need here, and Norv Turner will select the best defensive back available.

And The Pick Will Be: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

19. Bears

O-Rate: 21.5

D-Rate: 14

Offensive Additions: RB (Bush) WR (Marshall) WR (Thomas)

Offensive Losses: RB (Barber) WR (Williams)

Defensive Additions: LB (Costanzo)

Defensive Losses: DT (Okoye) FS (Meriweather) CB (Bowman) CB (Graham)

Digging Deeper: Free agency will have everything to do with this selection, as the Bears' offense should be immediately upgraded with the additions of Marshall and Bush.  Chicago averaged the 17th most Passing Yards Per Attempt in 2011, and that number has the potential to be cut in half.  They should reach the end zone more often as well after having the 24th most Passing TDs and 21st most Rushing TDs last season.  On defense, the secondary took a bit by losing Meriweather, Bowman, and Graham.  A solid defensive back could step in and contribute right away.

And The Pick Will Be: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

20. Titans

O-Rate: 18

D-Rate: 9.5

Offensive Additions: G (Hutchinson)

Offensive Losses: WR (Avery)

Defensive Additions: DE (Wimbley) DT (Douzable)

Defensive Losses: CB (Finnegan) DE (Jones)

Digging Deeper: Offense looks to be the area of need for the Titans.  Tennessee mustered the 4th lowest Yard Per Carry Average in the NFL last year, and ranked 26 when it came to Rushing TDs.  Their defense was top ten in Passing Yards Per Attempt Allowed, Passing TDs Allowed, and Rushing TDs Allowed.  Yards Per Carry Allowed (22nd) could be improved, but investing in the offensive line should help CJ2K return to form.

And The Pick Will Be: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

21. Bengals

O-Rate: 20.5

D-Rate: 6.5

Offensive Additions: G (Wharton) RB (Green-Ellis)

Offensive Losses: G (Livings) G (McGlynn) RB (Benson) WR (Caldwell) WR (Simpson)

Defensive Additions: CB (Newman) DE (Harvey) DE (Anderson) CB (Allen)

Defensive Losses: DE (Rucker) LB (Rivers)

Digging Deeper: If the Bengals don't help out their offensive line with the 17th pick then they should certainly consider it here.  If Cincy does go O-line with their first pick, then there are two other statistical positions of need.  The Bengals' rush defense allowed the 20th most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last year.  If the right 3-4 ILB or OLB is here then consider it a priority.  Wide Receiver is the other glaring need, but Cincinnati invested in A.J. Green last year with the 4th overall pick, and it's unlikely that Blackmon, Floyd, or Wright falls this far.

And The Pick Will Be: Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

22. Browns

O-Rate: 30

D-Rate: 7

Offensive Additions: none

Offensive Losses: RB (Hillis) OT (Pashos)

Defensive Additions: DE (Rucker) DE (Parker)

Defensive Losses: S (Adams)

Digging Deeper: The Browns should draft Trent Richardson with the 4th overall pick.  Richardson will improve the offense, but not enough to justify a defensive selection here at 22.  Cleveland still needs some major help offensively.  They were 31st in the league in both Pass Yards Per Attempt and Rush Yards Per Attempt.  They were 27th in Passing TDs.  The Browns will probably take the best available offensive player who falls to them.  They could go safe with an offensive guard, take a stab at Brandon Weeden or add a receiving threat.  They will probably give McCoy one more chance this season to prove he belongs.

And The Pick Will Be: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

23. Lions

O-Rate: 6

D-Rate: 21.5

Offensive Additions: none

Offensive Losses: none

Defensive Additions: DE (Brown)

Defensive Losses: CB (Wright) OLB (Carpenter)

Digging Deeper: The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL and they didn't suffer any losses to free agency.  The pick here will be defense, but which position remains to be seen.  Detroit gave up the 3rd most Rush Yards Per Play in the league last season, but also ranked in the bottom half (22nd) in Passing TDs allowed.  A 4-3 linebacker with speed makes sense.

And The Pick Will Be: Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina

24. Steelers

O-Rate: 16

D-Rate: 1

Offensive Additions: TE (Pope)

Offensive Losses: WR (Ward)

Defensive Additions: none

Defensive Losses: CB (Gay)

Digging Deeper: Pittsburgh needs very little help on defense, but their offense isn't too shabby either. Roethlisberger, Mendenhall, and crew put up the 9th most Rush Yards Per Play and the 5th most Pass Yards Per Play last season.  With Mike Wallace a restricted free agent that remains unsigned, he'll probably end up staying in the steel city, but Hines Ward is gone and the Steelers have shown a recent tendency to air the ball out.  If Tomlin wants to continue stacking the defense, he'll probably go cornerback here to replace William Gay.  Statistically, it makes sense for them to go offense, and grabbing a receiver with size should help the cause.

And The Pick Will Be: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU

25. Broncos

O-Rate: 25.5

D-Rate: 20

Offensive Additions: QB (Manning) WR (Stokley) WR (Caldwell) TE (Tamme) TE (Dreessen)

Offensive Losses: QB (Tebow) WR (Royal) TE (Rosario)

Defensive Additions: CB (Porter) S (Adams)

Defensive Losses: DT (Bunkley) S (Dawkins)

Digging Deeper: Peyton Manning is a game-changer here, as the Broncos' offense is immediately upgraded.  Trading away Tebow, an offensive statistical liability, is a good thing for the offensive unit.  Fox and crew will probably go defense here to help win in the short-term.  The best available player makes sense, as the defense was mediocre across the board last season.  Denver was ranked 20th in Pass Yards Allowed Per Play, 13th in Rush Yards Allowed Per Play, 16th in Passing TDs Allowed, and 15th in Rushing TDs Allowed.

And The Pick Will Be: Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE, Alabama

26. Texans

O-Rate: 11

D-Rate: 3.5

Offensive Additions: none

Offensive Losses: FB (Vickers) OT (Winston) G (Brisel)

Defensive Additions: LB (James)

Defensive Losses: LB (Ryans) LB (Williams) CB (Allen)

Digging Deeper: Statistically, one would argue that the Texans should go offense here, but injuries last year and free agency losses skew this figure.  Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are on track to be healthy and improve on their 18th-ranked Passing TD total.  Even with the injuries, the Texans ranked 7th in both Passing Yards Per Play and Rushing Yards Per Play.  They were 3rd in Rushing Touchdowns.  Houston would love for a player like Upshaw to fall this far, a 3-4 linebacker to replace Williams and Ryans.  Unfortunately for them, the stud from Alabama won't, so the next best available LB is the pick.

And The Pick Will Be: Nick Perry, OLB, USC

27. Patriots

O-Rate: 3

D-Rate: 22

Offensive Additions: WR (Lloyd) WR (Gonzalez)

Offensive Losses: OT (Light) RB (Green-Ellis)

Defensive Additions: CB (Carpenter) S (Allen)

Defensive Losses: DE (Anderson)

Digging Deeper: Despite losing Light to retirement and Green-Ellis to free agency, the Patriots would be extremely well-suited to help the defense with both the 27th and 31st picks.  New England's defense gave up the 4th most Passing Yards Per Play, the 9th most Rushing Yards Per Play, the 11th most Passing TDs, and the 14th most Rushing TDs.

And The Pick Will Be: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

28. Packers

O-Rate: 2

D-Rate: 25

Offensive Additions: C (Saturday)

Offensive Losses: C (Wells) OT (Clifton)

Defensive Additions: none

Defensive Losses: none

Digging Deeper: Green Bay had a remarkably low number of free agents this year, so these statistics should tell most of the story.  An O-Rate of 2 and a D-Rate of 25 is clear evidence that the defense will be the choice.  When we dig deeper, we see that the Packers actually allowed the 6th fewest Rushing TDs in the NFL.  That was the only good news, as they surrendered the 27th most Passing Yards Per Play and the 26th most Rushing Yards Per Play.  A physical, versatile defender will help.

And The Pick Will Be: Andre Branch, DE/LB, Clemson

29. Ravens

O-Rate: 15.5

D-Rate: 2.5

Offensive Additions: none

Offensive Losses: G (Grubbs) WR (Evans)

Defensive Additions: CB (Graham) S (Considine)

Defensive Losses: DE (Redding) LB (Johnson) CB (Carr) S (Zbikowski)

Digging Deeper: Despite losing a few free agents, Baltimore definitely has an elite defense.  Help on the offensive side of the ball is warranted here.  Flacco and crew put up only the 22nd most Passing Yards Per Play last year.  They are set at QB with Flacco and at WR with Boldin and Smith.  It might make sense to go offensive line or TE here, but with Ray Rice's contract in limbo, RB depth has to be a high concern.  He touches the ball more than any other skill player on the team and could use a talented spell back to keep opposing defenses on their heels.

And The Pick Will Be: Doug Martin, RB, Boise State

30. 49ers

O-Rate: 18

D-Rate: 4

Offensive Additions: WR (Manningham) WR (Moss) RB (Jacobs)

Offensive Losses: G (Snyder)

Defensive Additions: none

Defensive Losses: S (Smith)

Digging Deeper: The 49ers scored big by signing Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, and Brandon Jacobs.  Manningham and Moss complete a very solid WR core, and Jacobs is the perfect complement to Gore and Hunter.  With Vernon Davis entrenched at TE, replacing Snyder at guard is the only gap in a very talented O-line.  Harbaugh will use the free agent pick-ups to his advantage and continue working on his elite defense with this pick.

And The Pick Will Be: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

31. Patriots

O-Rate: 3

D-Rate: 22

Offensive Additions: WR (Lloyd) WR (Gonzalez)

Offensive Losses: OT (Light) RB (Green-Ellis)

Defensive Additions: CB (Carpenter) S (Allen)

Defensive Losses: DE (Anderson)

Digging Deeper: If the 27th choice is a defensive lineman then the 31st pick should be an addition to the secondary.  With Bill Belichick's history of risky acquisitions, taking the most talented player available makes a lot of sense.

And The Pick Will Be: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

32. Giants

O-Rate: 7

D-Rate: 24

Offensive Additions: TE (Bennett)

Offensive Losses: RB (Jacobs) WR (Manningham) WR (Stokley)

Defensive Additions: LB (Rivers)

Defensive Losses: DE (Tollefson) CB (Ross)

Digging Deeper: The loss of Mario Manningham hurts, but not enough to justify going offense here.  They stepped up when it mattered, but the Giants simply weren't all that great on D last year.  Statistically, they were 22nd in both Pass Yards Per Play Allowed and Rush Yards Per Play Allowed.  In terms of points allowed, the G-Men gave up the 8th most Passing TDs and 10th most Rushing TDs.  Everyone knows that New York has defensive ends and linebackers.  Their first round pick last year, Prince Amukamura, should step in to replace Ross just fine.  As teams begin to adapt the NASCAR formation, the Giants could use a solid DT for years to come.

And The Pick Will Be: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Posted by NCSUalum | Permalink | Comments |

by Colin Feeney (@colin_feeney)

Earlier this week, Kenny previewed the American League for the upcoming MLB season. Today we look at the National League, where several teams have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, especially considering the extra wild card spot in place this year. The league did lose some firepower when Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder both signed with AL clubs, but there are several extremely talented young stars on NL teams that should make the league fun to watch for years to come.

NL EAST

1. Philadelphia Phillies

Last Year’s StatRank: 98.8 (A+)

Hitting Outlook: Although they finished with the highest Team StatRank in MLB last season, the Phillies offense was undoubtedly average, as they finished right around 15th in the league in every major offensive statistical category. The regulars are aging and they’ll begin the season without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup due to injuries. However, the Phillies don’t need to rely solely on their offense to win many games, so staying healthy (especially for the postseason) will be the biggest issue for this lineup. 

Pitching Outlook: According to our Starting Pitcher StatRank, the Phillies had three of the top seven starters from last season in Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels. All three return to the rotation this season and the Phillies added Jonathan Papelbon to shut the door for them in the ninth inning.

StatRank Prediction: A

2. Atlanta Braves

Last Year’s StatRank: 84.9 (B)

Hitting Outlook: The Braves offense struggled last season, costing them the wild card spot in the worst September collapse in National League history. Rather than adding pieces to the lineup in the offseason, the Braves are hoping that Dan Uggla, Jason Heyward, and a healthy Martin Prado can bounce back after subpar years.

Pitching Outlook: The Braves have perhaps the best bullpen in the game, but they overused it last year, relying too much on “O’Ventbrel” (Eric O’Flaherty, Jonny Venters, and Craig Kimbrel) in close games. The rotation will need to stay healthy and pitch deeper into games for the bullpen to remain as effective for the entire season.

StatRank Prediction: B+

3. Miami Marlins

Last Year’s StatRank: 71.5 (C-)

Hitting Outlook: By signing Jose Reyes for 6 years, $106 million and pairing him with Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins now have two of the past three National League batting champions. When healthy, Reyes’ speed and ability to get on base are game-changers. This offense will go as far as Reyes will take them, setting the table for Ramirez and young sluggers Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison, and Gaby Sanchez.

Pitching Outlook: Rather than trading away talent for young pitching prospects, the Marlins are now spending big money to acquire talented arms. New additions to the pitching staff include Mark Buerhle, closer Heath Bell, and Carlos Zambrano, who was acquired via trade. They’ll join ace Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco in a potential formidable rotation. Each pitcher has battled injuries in the past and will need to stay healthy for the Marlins compete for the postseason.

StatRank Prediction: B

4. Washington Nationals

Last Year’s StatRank: 80 (B-)

Hitting Outlook: Much of the buzz surrounding the Nationals this season is due to their talented pitching staff, not their lineup. That could change, though, pending a midseason call-up of top prospect Bryce Harper, which is expected around June. Aside from Harper, the Nats are looking for top hitter Ryan Zimmerman to stay healthy, another great season from Mike Morse, and for Jayson Werth to rebound from a terrible 2011 campaign.  

Pitching Outlook: The most important thing for Nationals is that Stephen Strasburg is healthy and fully recovered after missing most of last season after Tommy John surgery. Newcomers Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson will join Jordan Zimmerman and John Lannan to round out the rotation, which should continue to improve. Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and Brad Lidge should be among the top relief pitchers in the league out of the bullpen. 

StatRank Prediction: B

5. New York Mets

Last Year’s StatRank: 77.2 (C+)

Hitting Outlook: The Mets traded Carlos Beltran at the deadline last season and lost Jose Reyes in free agency. Could David Wright be the next star to leave New York? The Mets are rebuilding, so it could be a long season in New York. They’ll try to build around Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis, and Lucas Duda.

Pitching Outlook: Johan Santana is healthy again after missing all of last season and will start opening day. He’ll certainly improve a rotation that didn’t feature a top-50 pitcher in Starting Pitcher StatRank last season. New acquisitions Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco will provide relief out of the bullpen.

StatRank Prediction: D+

NL CENTRAL

1. Cincinnati Reds

Last Year’s StatRank: 78.4 (C+)

Hitting Outlook: Last year, Cincinnati’s offense ranked in the top-10 of many offensive statistical categories, even with several young players in the lineup. The Reds didn’t make any major moves to their offense, hoping that another year of experience will help their players improve their numbers this season. Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto will again anchor the lineup for the Reds.

Pitching Outlook: The Reds traded several prospects in the offseason to San Diego for Mat Latos. He’ll join Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Mike Leake to give the Reds one of the most young and talented rotations in the league. Newly acquired closer Ryan Madson will miss the entire season, but Aroldis Chapman, Bill Bray, and Sean Marshall will combine to fill his void. This staff as a whole should benefit from both Fielder and Pujols leaving the division.

StatRank Prediction: B+

2. Milwaukee Brewers

Last Year’s StatRank: 92 (A)

Hitting Outlook: The biggest issue for the Brewers offensively will be figuring out how to replace the production of Prince Fielder. It certainly won’t be easy, and the Brewers should be thankful just to have Ryan Braun, who won his appeal of suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Energetic Nyjer Morgan will look to set the table for Braun, Rickie Weeks, and new acquisition Aramis Ramirez.

Pitching Outlook: The rotation will need to carry the team if the Brewers hope to contend for a spot in the playoffs. Zack Grienke, Yovani Gallardo, and Shaun Marcum are back after each finished in the top 35 for Starting Pitcher StatRank last season. Former closer Francisco Rodriguez will return to setup for closer John Axford.

StatRank Prediction: B

3. St. Louis Cardinals

Last Year’s StatRank: 88.3 (B+)

Hitting Outlook: After winning the World Series last season, the celebration was short-lived once Cardinals fans learned that Albert Pujols decided to sign with the Los Angeles Angels. Now the Cardinals will have to rely on aging stars such as Rafael Furcal, Carlos Beltran, and Lance Berkman to lead their offense. 

Pitching Outlook: Adam Wainwright returns after missing last season with Tommy John surgery to anchor the starting rotation. The bullpen pitched well the second half of last season and became a strength during the postseason. Fernando Salas (StatRank #19) and closer Jason Motte (StatRank #26) are the top relief pitchers.

StatRank Prediction: B-

4. Pittsburgh Pirates

Last Year’s StatRank: 70.6 (C-)

Hitting Outlook: The Pirates finished in the lower third of most offensive statistical categories last season, but the lineup is full of young, talented hitters eager to breakout. Andrew McCutchen is already a star, and Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, and Alex Presley will look to follow his lead.

Pitching Outlook: The Pirates rotation overachieved last year, and kept the Pirates in contention until mid-July. In an effort to help them put it together for an entire season, the Pirates signed veteran Erik Bedard.  His signing could be very beneficial to the club, provided he stays injury-free, which has been nearly impossible the past few seasons. In the pen, closer Joel Hanrahan is one of the league’s best kept secrets, as he finished 12th in relief pitcher StatRank last season.

StatRank Prediction: C

5. Chicago Cubs

Last Year’s StatRank: 69.7 (D+)

Hitting Outlook: The lineup is mixed with aging veterans (Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd) and promising younger players (Starlin Castro, Ian Stewart, Darwin Barney). The Cubs don’t seem to be in position to contend for the playoffs this season, so look for the Cubs to try and sell off the vets while taking a long look at their young talent.

Pitching Outlook: Pitchers Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster might be moved for younger talent as the Cubs try to rebuild under new President Theo Epstein. The rotation doesn’t feature Carlos Zambrano for the first time since 2003 after the Cubs dealt him to the Marlins in the offseason. Jeff Samardizija moves into a starting role while Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol provide solid relief out of the bullpen.

StatRank Prediction: D+

6. Houston Astros

Last Year’s StatRank: 58.5 (F)

Hitting Outlook: The Astros are now in their final season in the National League, and unfortunately for their fans, it will be another long season. After dealing Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn at the deadline last season, the lineup doesn’t feature any well-known names outside of an aging Carlos Lee. The Astros will feature several young players in an effort to gain experience and contend in a few years.

Pitching Outlook: Much like the lineup, the pitching staff doesn’t feature many well-known players. Wandy Rodriguez (11-11, 3.49) is the ace and will be followed in the rotation by Bud Norris, JA Happ, and Jordan Lyles. Brandon Lyon returns to a setup role after missing most of last season. Brett Myers shifts to the closer role after starting for the Astros the past two years.

StatRank Prediction: F

NL WEST

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Last Year’s StatRank: 90 (A-)

Hitting Outlook: The lineup has both power and speed, as the Diamondbacks finished 7th in stolen bases and 9th in both runs and HRs a year ago. Justin Upton, still only 24, hit .289 with 31 HR and 88 RBI last year and could have an MVP season this year as he continues to improve.

Pitching Outlook: Arizona’s rotation rivals Cincinnati’s in that it is both young and extremely talented. Ian Kennedy (27 years old) and Daniel Hudson (25 years old) both finished in the top 30 for Starting Pitcher StatRank last season. Joe Saunders and Trevor Cahill both ranked in the top 70, giving the Diamondbacks good depth in the rotation. Out of the bullpen, JJ Putz had a terrific year last season, saving 45 games with a 2.17 ERA.

StatRank Prediction: A

2. San Francisco Giants

Last Year’s StatRank: 82.3 (B)

Hitting Outlook: The Giants offense really struggled last season, finishing in the lower third of every major offensive statistical category. The Giants hope to keep Buster Posey healthy this year and brought in Melky Cabrera to play left field. If the Giants expect to make the postseason this year, they’ll need to get much more production out of their offense.

Pitching Outlook: The Giants have one of the best rotations in the league, highlighted by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner. They traded Jonathan Sanchez in the offseason for Cabrera in an attempt to jumpstart their offense. The bullpen is also solid, with Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt setting up closer Brian Wilson.

StatRank Prediction: B+

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Last Year’s StatRank: 82.9 (B)

Hitting Outlook: The lineup is anchored by Matt Kemp, who earned lots of MVP consideration with a terrific year last season. The Dodgers hope Andre Either can rebound after hitting only 11 HR and 62 RBI last year. Rookie Dee Gordon adds speed to the top of the lineup.

Pitching Outlook: Clayton Kershaw finished #2 in Starting Pitcher StatRank last season and should only get better. Veterans Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, and Chris Capuano bring lots of experience to the rotation. In the bullpen, Javy Guerra gets the closer’s role after Jonathan Broxton signed with Kansas City.

StatRank Prediction: C+

4. Colorado Rockies

Last Year’s StatRank: 72.3 (C)

Hitting Outlook: The lineup features a good mix of power and speed with Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Michael Cuddyer. The offense was top 10 in most statistical categories last season and is always dangerous playing in Coors Field.

Pitching Outlook: After trading ace Ubaldo Jimenez at the deadline last season, the rotation will feature several promising young pitchers, save for one. 49 year old Jaime Moyer made the rotation and will be the Rockies 5th starter. Rafael Betancourt will get the closer’s role after Huston Street was traded to the Padres.

StatRank Prediction: C

5. San Diego Padres

Last Year’s StatRank: 74.2 (C)

Hitting Outlook: The lineup finished near the bottom of nearly every major offensive statistical category last season. Several young players will get playing time this year in hopes of being a player the Padres can build around. Cameron Maybin seems to be coming into his own and will look to improve upon his numbers from a year ago.

Pitching Outlook: With the trade of ace Mat Latos in the offseason, the rotation is now led by Tim Stauffer and Clayton Richard. Edinson Volquez, acquired in the Latos deal, should see an improvement in his numbers by pitching in PetCo Park. Huston Street, acquired from Colorado in the offseason, should have plenty of save opportunities. 

StatRank Prediction: C-

Division Winners:

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central: Cincinnati Reds

NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks

Wild Cards: Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants

Postseason and Awards:

NL Champions: Philadelphia Phillies

NL MVP: Joey Votto, 1B Cin

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, SP LAD

NL ROY: Yonder Alonso, 1B SD

--

Colin is a Sports Data Analyst with StatSheet and can be reached on Twitter (@colin_feeney) or by email: colin@statsheet.com

Posted by Colin | Permalink | Comments |

By Kenny Ip (@Kip4Good)

At the end of last year, an argument could be made that the AL was the better of the two leagues. Of the seven teams that finished with a StatRank of A- or better, four were from the AL. Following a very positive off-season, it is at least the more interesting league. Two of the premier power hitters in the game switched to the AL. Two of the most hyped international players decided on teams in AL. The top teams made moves to help fill in any holes that may have been showing. With all the improvements, the league should see an even higher level of competition this year.

AL EAST

New York Yankees

Last Year’s StatRank: 95.7 (A)

Hitting Outlook: The Yanks’ once-MVP caliber players are getting uncomfortably older. However, there is still plenty of pop in a lineup that ranked 1^st in homers a year ago.

Pitching Outlook: Pitching was clearly the problem with the bombers last year. They addressed that by adding two pitchers who were in the StatRank top 25 in Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda. Potentially throw in a crafty Andy Pettitte and the rotation looks much improved.

StatRank Prediction: A

Tampa Bay Rays

Last Year’s StatRank: 90 (A-)

Hitting Outlook: Evan Longoria will lead an offense that finished 2^nd in the majors with 155 stolen bases last year. B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings have the potential to put up duel 20 HR, 40 SB seasons.

Pitching Outlook: The Rays open the season with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. David Price and James Shields are all-star caliber, while Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore were two of the most talked about minor league starters in recent history.

StatRank Prediction: A

Boston Red Sox

Last Year’s StatRank: 88.5 (B+)

Hitting Outlook: The Bo Sox suffered last season from injuries and lack of production from two key figures, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis. Bounce back years from both may be needed to make it into the playoffs.

Pitching Outlook: The bullpen added some quality arms in Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. However, relying on former relief pitchers, Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront, to round out the 4^th and 5^th starter spots could prove dangerous. 

StatRank Prediction: B

Toronto Blue Jays

Last Year’s StatRank: 78.8 (C+)

Hitting Outlook: Last year, Joey Bats helps blast the Jays to a top five finish in home runs. That can only improve when they get full years from Brett Lawrie, Kelly Johnson, and Colby Rasmus.

Pitching Outlook: Will this be the year that Dustin McGowan stays healthy? He rounds out the rotation with four talented but young pitchers that average 25 years of age.

StatRank Prediction: B-

Baltimore Orioles

Last Year’s StatRank: 68.4 (D+)

Hitting Outlook: Former highly touted prospects, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters, showed their potential last year when both hit 20+ home runs for the first times in their careers. They could both push to be among the elite in their respective positions this year.

Pitching Outlook: It’s back to the drawing board for the O’s pitching staff this year. Of the five pitchers with the most starts a year ago, only Jake Arrieta will be in the five man rotation coming out of spring.

StatRank Prediction: D+

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers

Last Year’s StatRank: 90.6 (A-)

Hitting Outlook: Prince Fielder will fill the void after Victor Martinez’s season ending ACL tear. Keep an eye on Detroit’s underrated outfield; it could be the difference between advancing to the World Series or going home early.

Pitching Outlook: StatRank’s #1 pitcher, Justin Verlander, took home both the Cy Young and MVP awards a year ago. He will need some help from his fellow pitching mates as Detroit finished in the bottom half of the MLB in ERA, despite such a dominant year from their ace.

StatRank Prediction: A-

Chicago White Sox

Last Year’s StatRank: 76.4 (C)

Hitting Outlook: To say Adam Dunn’s debut season for the White Sox was bad is an understatement. New manager, Robin Ventura, looks to reverse the fortunes of Dunn as well as underachieving Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham.

Pitching Outlook: Flamethrower Chris Sale will leave the bullpen to help sure up the rotation. Matt Thornton and Jesse Crain battle to open the season as the closer, but farm prospect, Addison Reed, could be the one that finishes in the position.

StatRank Prediction: C+

Cleveland Indians

Last Year’s StatRank: 76.4 (C)

Hitting Outlook: The typically reliable Shin-Soo Choo had a tough year on and off the field. Look for him to bounce back as he joins perennial all-stars, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana to lead the Indians.

Pitching Outlook: Ubaldo Jimenez and Derek Lowe were both opening day starters for different teams last year. One tumultuous year later, both look to prove that they are still top of the rotation pitchers in their first full season with the Tribe.

StatRank Prediction: C+

Kansas City Royals

Last Year’s StatRank: 72.8 (C)

Hitting Outlook: A season ago, Alex Gordon finally put up the numbers to match his potential. Eric Hosmer showed his potential from the very beginning. However, the jury is still out on Mike Moustakas. The team will go as far as the trio can perform this year.

Pitching Outlook: The Royals traded away arguably their best hitter last year, Melky Cabrera, for an underachieving Jonathan Sanchez. The pressure will be on him to prove the move was worth making. Keep an eye on starter, Luis Mendoza, who had an outstanding spring.

StatRank Prediction: C

Minnesota Twins

Last Year’s StatRank: 62.4 (D)

Hitting Outlook: The lineup has really fallen off from when the Twins were the two-time AL Central champs before last year. With Joe Mauer unable to come close his MVP season of 2009 and Justin Morneau’s health concerns, the team needs new blood to help carry the load.

Pitching Outlook: Francisco Liriano was viewed as potentially being one of baseball’s elite pitchers, and with a good showing in spring training, could finally be living up to the hype. However, the Twinkies were ranked 29^th in team ERA and need additional help to climb up from the cellar of the AL.

StatRank Prediction: D-

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels

Last Year’s StatRank: 83.5 (B)

Hitting Outlook: The Halos will get a boost in the power department as they signed the biggest free agent on the market in Albert Pujols and get Kendrys Morales back after a year and a half from injury. Also, with the emergence of Mark Trumbo and the looming call up of top prospect Mike Trout, The Angels should be one of the more exciting offenses in 2012.

Pitching Outlook: The rotation is strong after they added C.J. Wilson on top of having fellow top 15 StatRank pitchers, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. The bullpen is full of savvy veterans with Jordan Walden closing the door in the 9^th inning.

StatRank Prediction: A

Texas Rangers

Last Year’s StatRank: 95.4 (A)

Hitting Outlook: The Rangers return all the major parts of an offense that was ranked first in batting average a year ago. The results may even be better because Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz missed large portions of the past season.

Pitching Outlook: Texas lost C.J. Wilson to the Angels, but ponied up the big bucks for Japanese prospect, Yu Darvish. Neftali Feliz makes the transition from closer to starter, to round out a very solid rotation. Joe Nathan takes over the 9^th inning duties, and will be a part of perhaps the best bullpen in MLB a year ago.

StatRank Prediction: A

Seattle Mariners

Last Year’s StatRank: 66.6 (D)

Hitting Outlook: Ichiro is coming off the worst season of his storied career. The two time batting champion is motivated to avenge his embarrassing performance and look for him to regain his all-star form. The development of Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Justin Smoak will be the key to the last ranked Mariners offense.

Pitching Outlook: The trade of all-star Michael Pineda was done with the confidence in an emerging crop of young pitchers. However, talents like Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker will not be ready to start the season. King Felix will try to carry the staff until some of the younger pitchers get some seasoning.

StatRank Prediction: C-

Oakland Athletics

Last Year’s StatRank: 75.1 (C)

Hitting Outlook: In a move that doesn’t follow past philosophy, the A’s signed top Cuban prospect, Yoenis Cespedes. He is a five-tool player and it’ll be interesting to see how the 26-year-old rookie handles a major step up in competition. He will join a ragtag lineup that lacks any name recognition.

Pitching Outlook: Oakland overhauled the pitching staff by trading away some of their top starters. They will rely on young pitching replace them. A boost could come during the season when they get Brett Anderson back from Tommy John surgery.

StatRank Prediction: D-

Division Winners:

AL East: New York Yankees

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

AL West: LA Angels

Wild Card: Tampa Bay Ray, Texas Rangers

Post-season and Awards:

AL Champions: LA Angels

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, 3B DET

AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, SP LAA

AL ROY: Yu Darvish, SP TEX

Kenny is a Sports Data Analyst with StatSheet.com and can be reached on Twitter @Kip4Good or by e-mail: Kenny@StatSheet.com

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