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The Four Factors to Winning at Basketball
October 27, 2008

Basketball boxscores on Statsheet will soon have a bar chart showing the "Four Factors".  The concept of the Four Factors was pioneered by Dean Oliver, one of the leading basketball statisticians in the field of APBRMetrics. Dean wrote a book, Basketball on Paper, that I highly recommend to anyone interested in the technical details of analyzing basketball stats.  I met Dean in February 2008 and he's a nice guy to boot.

Dean has identified four factors that are the most important determinants of basketball success. They are:

  1. Shooting the Ball Well, which is measured by effective field goal percentage (eFG%).  eFG% is like field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers (since it accounts for more points).  The calculation is (0.5*3PTM + FGM) / FGA.
  2. Taking Care of the Ball, which is measured by turnover percentage (TO%).  TO% is a pace-independent way to measure ball security. TO% = Turnovers / Possessions.
  3. Offensive Rebounding indicates a team's ability to get second chance shots, which dramatically improves efficiency.  This is measured by offensive rebounding percentage (OR%). OR% = Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds).
  4. Getting to the Free Throw Line is measured by Free Throw Rate (FT Rate). This isn't just a measure of how many free throws a team makes, but the frequency in which they go to the line. FT Rate = Free Throws Attempted / Field Goals Attempted.
These factors aren't weighted equally.  Studies have shown for both NBA and college basketball that the factors have the following weights: Shooting (40%), Taking Care of the Ball (25%), Offensive Rebounding (20%), and Getting to the Line (15%).  Your mileage will vary depending on the team however (i.e., for some teams getting to the line may have a higher importance to winning).

Dean has an essay on the Four Factors plus his book has much more detail.

UPDATE: A Four Factors graph is now included with every boxscore since 1996. Here is an example.

Posted by Robbie | Permalink | Comments


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