Simple answer: when Bill James says it is!

Now for the longer answer. I've had a notion of creating a stat that indicates when a college basketball game is "statistically over". This would be the point in the game where the outcome is certain regardless of future events. While doing research for this, I found a formula developed by none other than the King of Sabermetrics, Bill James. Turns out Bill is a loyal Kansas Jayhawk fan, and he wanted to determine when a lead was "safe", so he came up with this:

• Take the number of points one team is ahead.
• Subtract three.
• Add a half-point if the team that is ahead has the ball, and subtract a half-point if the other team has the ball. (Numbers less than zero become zero.)
• Square that.
• If the result is greater than the number of seconds left in the game, the lead is safe.

There may be other cases, but it is clear his formula works most of the time. But that might also suggest that his formula is too conservative. This is where I plan on evaluating and possibly changing the formula if I can find other indicators that determine a game is over sooner. Bill just went by the score, but I have access to both team and player stats (seasonal and game-by-game) which may help predict even better. More to come on that!

For now, if a game is "statistically over" sooner than the end of the game (some games are so close they aren't over early), you'll see it highlighted. Here is an example: http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2008/04/05/kansas-84-north-carolina-66

Posted by Robbie | Permalink | Comments

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