Preview: Northwestern (2-2) at Purdue (1-3)
Posted September 30, 2009
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Ross-Ade Stadium (67,332) -- West Lafayette, Indiana. Television:BTN. Home Record: Northwestern 2-1, Purdue 1-2. Away Record: Northwestern 0-1, Purdue 0-1. Neutral Record: Northwestern 0-0, Purdue 0-0. Conference Record: Northwestern 0-1, Purdue 0-0. Series Record: Purdue leads, 49-26-1.
GAME NOTES: The Purdue Boilermakers will try salvage the finale of their three-game homestand this weekend, as they open Big Ten play against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Following a season opening win over Toledo, the Boilermakers have fallen on tough times and have three dropped consecutive outings. The three losses have come by a combined 12 points and include a tough 24-21 setback to Notre Dame this past weekend. The Boilermakers obviously haven't capitalized on a their current three-game homestand and they now open Big Ten play with a losing mark already.
As for Northwestern, it began its conference slate last weekend, dropping a 35-24 decision to Minnesota. The Wildcats have now fallen in back-to-back games for the first time since late in the 2007 season, negating their 2-0 start to the campaign.
Northwestern though, has won three of the past five meetings with Purdue and that includes a 48-26 triumph in Evanston last season. However, the Boilermakers still hold a 49-26-1 advantage in the all-time series, with a 22-9 mark when playing West Lafayette.
For the second game in a row the Wildcats committed three turnovers and their 373 total yards of offense wasn't enough to compensate for the mishaps in a 35-24 loss to Minnesota this past weekend. As was the case against Syracuse, quarterback Mike Kafka was guilty of all three miscues, although he was also instrumental in moving the ball for the Wildcats. The senior gunslinger completed 32-of-47 tosses for 309 yards and two scores despite being heavily pressured. Kafka, who was coming off a career-best 390-yard performance at Syracuse, has completed 72.2 percent of his throws this season, but needs to cut down on the turnovers. He has done a nice job of spreading out the ball, as four players have caught at least 15 passes thus far. Andrew Brewer leads the team with 280 receiving yards and three touchdowns, and he had three receptions for 44 yards and a score in last weekend's loss. With 150 yards, Stephen Simmons continues to pace the ground attack, which is averaging 130.5 ypg, but he has missed two games due to injury and is listed as questionable for this weekend.
Northwestern didn't give up a ton of yards last game, but the defense couldn't quite slow down Minnesota on a consistent basis and allowed five touchdowns in the loss. The Wildcats, who are giving up 337.0 total ypg on the season, allowed 166 rushing yards and 186 passing to the Golden Gophers. The defense came up with just one turnover and sack, while allowing Minnesota to convert 8-of-14 third downs. Brendan Smith paced the defense in defeat with 10 stops and Quentin Davie had nine tackles. The duo have combined for 59 tackles this season.
The Boilermakers scored 14 of their 21 points in the fourth quarter, including the go-ahead touchdown with 3:41 left, but were unable to hold off Notre Dame in a three point loss. Purdue gained a decent 363 yards of total offense, but that is still well below its season average of 421.0 total ypg. The reason for the big drop off was the ground attack which gained just 103 yards, a noticeable difference from the 176.5 ypg they are averaging on the year. Ralph Bolden has enjoyed a fast start to the season with 488 rushing yards to his credit, but he was held in check by Notre Dame, gaining only 67 yards on 17 carries. Quarterback Joey Elliott stepped up with the lack of a ground attack and he threw for a season-high 289 yards and three touchdowns. It was certainly a solid performance from Elliott, who has been inconsistent on the year with seven touchdown passes against six interceptions. Keith Smith has emerged as his most dependable target and he leads the team with 28 catches and 358 receiving yards. Last weekend, Smith made a name of himself, catching 11 passes for 136 yards and a touchdown.
Purdue's defense was solid for a majority of last weekend's game, but when the group was needed most, it was unable to come up big. Clinging to a 21-17 lead, the Boilermakers allowed Notre Dame to drive 72 yards on 12 plays in just over three minutes and win the game on a fourth-down touchdown pass with 25 seconds left. It was certainly a dagger in the heart for this unit, which compensated for 383 yards it allowed by recording four sacks and one takeaway. The Boilermakers are currently allowing 421.5 total ypg to opposing teams and that number could get even higher if this unit doesn't step up when needed. Jason Werner though, continues to shine for Purdue and he had eight tackles and a pair of sacks in last weekend's loss. On the season, he now leads the team with 34 stops, eight TFLs and three sacks.
Neither of these teams figure to be a factor in the Big Ten race, but this is a good opportunity for one club to snare a league victory. Go with the Boilermakers, as they are playing at home and have the more balanced offense.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Purdue 31, Northwestern 27
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