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Preview: Michigan (4-1) at (12) Iowa (5-0)
Posted October 07, 2009
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GAME NOTES: A pair of surprising Big Ten teams will do battle this weekend, as the 12th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes play host to the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan holds a commanding 40-10-4 series advantage over Iowa, which includes three straight victories over the Hawkeyes.

Michigan opened the season with four consecutive wins after a horrendous 2008 campaign and a tumultuous off season. Unfortunately, the Wolverines suffered a letdown last week in East Lansing as they fell to rival Michigan State in overtime by a 26-20 final. Still, Michigan already has one more victory than it had all of last year and can climb right back in the race for the Big Ten crown with a win on Saturday night.

Iowa has jumped out to an impressive 5-0 start, and the most impressive victory to date was a 21-10 triumph at Penn State two weeks ago. This past weekend, the Hawkeyes were expected to crush Arkansas State, but the result of that non-conference affair was a narrow 24-21 victory. Because that game was so close, there are some fans and analysts who still aren't sold on Iowa, but the team will have plenty of chances to win over those doubters, including this weekend.

Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier is just a freshman, and while he has played like an upperclassman for much of this season, his interception in overtime against Michigan State sealed the fate of the Wolverines. Forcier finished 17- of-32 passing for 223 yards and two touchdowns, and he also led the team in rushing. That isn't saying much, however, because he only had 27 rushing yards, and the team finished with just 28 net rushing yards on 28 attempts. The Wolverines were outgained, 417-251, as the Spartans held the ball for nearly two-thirds of the contest. Michigan permitted three rushing touchdowns in the tilt.

"It was a good game," said defensive end Brandon Graham after the setback. "It was a dog fight."

Overall this season, Michigan is scoring 34.0 ppg while racking up 388.0 total ypg. The Wolverines have scored 21 offensive touchdowns, 12 of which have come via the ground attack. They are gaining 197.8 rushing ypg at a clip of 4.8 ypc, and Carlos Brown leads the way with 336 yards to accompany his three touchdowns. As for Forcier, he has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 894 yards and nine scores with three interceptions. Michigan is converting 43 percent of its third down conversion attempts this season.

Defensively, the Wolverines are allowing 392.0 total ypg, and they are yielding 23.4 ppg. Foes are have found success both on the ground and through the air against Michigan, which has been rather mediocre defensively. Sure, the team's total of 10 takeaways is solid, but six sacks in five outings leaves much to be desired. Obi Ezeh has been a solid performer as expected, as he has 48 total tackles to his credit. As for Brandon Graham, he has recorded 6.5 TFLs.

Iowa is not an explosive offensive team, as it is averaging a modest 24.8 ppg and 362.2 total ypg. The Hawkeyes are gaining just 3.9 yards per rushing attempt, so there is certainly room for improvement in that aspect of the game. Freshman tailback Adam Robinson leads the way with 359 yards and four touchdowns on 78 attempts, while Brandon Wegher checks in with 269 rushing yards and two touchdowns. As for quarterback Ricky Stanzi, he has completed 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,075 yards and eight touchdowns with seven interceptions.

While the offense has been adequate for Iowa, the team's defense has been superb. The Hawkeyes are limiting foes to 13.4 ppg and 302.6 total ypg. They have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season and have held opposing quarterbacks below a 50 percent completion rating. Pat Angerer leads Iowa with 47 total tackles, and he has both an interception and forced fumble to his credit. Karl Klug has 6.5 TFLs, and Tyler Sash has already intercepted five passes to go along with four TFLs.

Iowa posted 420 total yards against Arkansas State while yielding 296 total yards. The Hawkeyes didn't run the ball very well, as they averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt, but the fact that they gave up a mere 3.2 yards per rush played a major role in the win. Stanzi finished the game 18-of-26 for 296 passing yards and three TDs, tremendous stats by any standards. Unfortunately, he did throw a pair of interceptions that made a game a bit closer than expected. Marvin McNutt was outstanding on the outside, as the Iowa receiver caught four passes for 121 yards and two scores.

"It was a little close, but coming into this game we expected them to be a great opponent," said McNutt after the narrow win. "They play a lot of good teams really tough. You don't expect them to not be good. You play every game like they're the number one team in the nation."

Iowa is now 5-0 for the first time in the Kirk Ferentz era.

"I did not know that," said Angerer. "I think when I was a redshirt freshman we went 5-1 then 1-5 I think, but we can't let up - absolutely not."

Iowa will get the job done this weekend at home, but expect yet another close game. The Hawkeyes aren't the type of team that will blow out many opponents, especially those the caliber of Michigan.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Iowa 23, Michigan 20


 
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Kirk Ferentz
  Iowa Head Coach