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Preview: Baylor (3-2) at Iowa State (3-3)
Posted October 14, 2009
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Jack Trice Stadium (55,000) -- Ames, Iowa. Television: None. Home Record: Baylor 2-1, ISU 2-1. Away Record: Baylor 1-1, ISU 1-1. Neutral Record: Baylor 0-0, ISU 0-1. Conference Record: Baylor 0-1, ISU 0-2. Series Record: Series is tied, 4-4.

GAME NOTES: The Baylor Bears pull into Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa this Saturday to challenge the Iowa State Cyclones in a Big 12 Conference battle.

Baylor was toppled by Oklahoma last weekend, 33-7, in its league opener. The Bears have been beset by a couple of key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, as they've lost star quarterback Robert Griffin for the season and haven't had starting running back Jay Finley at full power since week two. Following this clash, Baylor plays three of its next four at home, beginning with Homecoming against Oklahoma State next week.

On the other sideline, ISU is trying to avoid a third consecutive loss. The Cyclones were ousted by Kansas last weekend, 41-36, and their last two losses have come by a combined six points. This marks Homecoming weekend for the Cyclones, who are back on the road for their next two games.

The all-time series between these two schools is tied at 4-4, although Baylor has won the last four.

The Bears are still trying to find a new identity in the wake of a season- ending knee injury to Griffin a few weeks ago. Obviously, some dropoff in production was to be expected. Nick Florence has stepped in and thrown for 436 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. Florence isn't putting up monster stats, but he is completing nearly 62 percent of his passes and has thrown just one interception in 68 attempts, an area in which Griffin also excelled. Starting running back Jay Finley (ankle) returned from a two-week absence last week against Oklahoma. However, he got only two carries and finished with minus-one yard rushing. Baylor only attempted 17 rushes as a team, which yielded a paltry six yards. In his two games prior to getting hurt, Finley had carried 22 times for 212 yards and a score. While nobody is asking Finley to average 9.6 ypc, the Bears know they need to find some semblance of a running game. Assuming his ankle cooperates, expect Finley's workload to increase significantly this week.

Defensively, the Bears answered the bell against a high-powered Oklahoma offense. They allowed just 14 points in the first half, then limited the Sooners to four second-half field goals before a late touchdown put the game out of reach. Unfortunately for Baylor, the offense wasn't able to keep pace. The fact that the Bears surrendered only 33 points is somewhat surprising when you consider they did not force any turnovers. That will be a key factor in this matchup, as head coach Art Briles expects the ISU crowd to play a big role. During his weekly press conference, Briles lauded the ability of the Cyclone offense to keep opposing defenses off balance. It will be up to guys like linebackers Joe Pawelek (team-high 46 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Antonio Jones (46 tackles, fumble recovery) to know their assignments and stay disciplined.

Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud has thrown for 1,080 yards and eight touchdowns, and he has also rushed for 389 yards and another six scores. He can credit a lot of that success to an offensive line that has kept defenders off his back. ISU has allowed just two sacks through six games, which is the fewest in the nation. Allowing ample time in the pocket, combined with Arnaud's athleticism, is not a great recipe for opposing defenses when facing ISU. Add in running back Alexander Robinson, and the Cyclones have a number of ways to hurt defenses. Robinson enters this game ranked second in the Big 12 in rushing (109 ypg) and has crossed the 100-yard mark four times this season, including each of the last three weeks. Last week, he gashed the Kansas defense for 152 yards and two scores on 27 carries (5.6 ypc). Thanks to Robinson and Arnaud, the Cyclones boast the nation's 14th-ranked rushing attack (209.5 ypg).

The ISU defense has not been as strong against the run, having allowed opponents to average 150 ypg on the ground. Overall, the Cyclones are yielding 391 total ypg. They haven't been very good against the pass either, as they rank 88th in the nation in that department (241 ypg). One of the problem areas has been the inability of the front-seven to generate pressure. ISU is averaging just 1.5 sacks per game, which ranks 11th in the conference. With some potent spread attacks looming in the rest of their Big 12 schedule, that is an area that will have to improve quite a bit. Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing had a field day last week, completing 37-of-49 passes for 442 yards and four touchdowns. The Jayhawks had two different receivers notch double- digit receptions, 100-plus receiving yards and two scores. Granted, the Bears don't have that type of firepower as they continue to break in a new quarterback. Still, at 0-2 in league play, the Cyclones certainly can't afford to make things any tougher on themselves.

Florence seems to be getting a bit more comfortable each week. After hanging in there against the Sooners and studying some film, he should be ready for whatever the Cyclones throw at him. Add a healthy Finley to the equation and the Bears might have what it takes to spoil ISU's Homecoming.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Baylor 31, Iowa State 21


 
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Iowa State

Baylor

Art Briles
  Baylor Head Coach