Preview: U-A-B (2-3) at Ole Miss (3-2)
Posted October 14, 2009
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FACTS & STATS: Site: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (50,577) -- Oxford, Mississippi. Television: FSN-S, ESPN Gameplan. Home Record: UAB 2-1, Ole Miss 1-1. Away Record: UAB 0-2, Ole Miss 2-1. Neutral Record: UAB 0-0, Ole Miss 0-0. Conference Record: UAB 2-1, Ole Miss 1-2. Series Record: First-ever meeting.
GAME NOTES: The Ole Miss Rebels are in a serious slump, and they will attempt to get back on track with a non-conference game against the UAB Blazers.
There is a fine line between rested and rusty, and it remains to be seen which of the two categories UAB falls under on Saturday. Afterall, the team hasn't played since October 1st, a 30-17 victory over Southern Miss. That victory halted a three-game skid and enabled the Blazers to move to 2-1 in Conference USA action, slightly overshadowing their 2-3 overall record.
As for Ole Miss, it was a top-10 team earlier in the season, but to say that the club has failed to live up to expectations is an understatement. The Rebels have lost two of their last three games, including a 22-3 beating at the hands of Alabama last weekend. Those 22 points are the most that Ole Miss has allowed this season, as the defense has clearly outplayed the offense to this point.
This game marks the first-ever meeting between UAB and Ole Miss on the gridiron.
UAB is scoring 28.0 ppg to go along with 359.4 total ypg, and the strength of the offense is clearly the ground attack. The Blazers are racking up 228.8 ypg at a clip of 6.0 ypc, and nine of the 15 offensive touchdowns have come on the ground. Joe Webb is the team's rusher, and he has gained 570 yards and five touchdowns at a clip of 6.2 ypc. It just so happens that Webb is also the team's starting quarterback, so his importance to the club cannot be overstated. Webb is connecting on 53.7 percent of his passes for 644 yards with six touchdowns against five interceptions, numbers that won't scare the Rebels but may keep them honest enough to prevent nine-man fronts. In the win over Southern Miss last time out, UAB finished with only 245 total yards. Webb passed for just 23 yards, but did throw a touchdown and wasn't intercepted. He was unstoppable on the ground, gaining 138 yards and a score on 24 attempts.
Opponents are racking up 31.8 ppg against UAB, which is yielding 453.6 total ypg. The Blazers are surrendering 308.6 passing ypg, one of the worst figures nationally, and they have given up 11 passing scores while making just five interceptions. The fact that opposing quarterbacks have been able to complete roughly 66 percent of their passes against UAB is problematic, as is the opposition's 45 percent success rate on third down conversion attempts. Bryant Turner is one of the best players for the defense, as he has seven TFLs to his credit thus far, including four TFLs. Leading tackler Hiram Atwater made a big play for the Blazers against Southern Miss, sealing the victory with a 40-yard interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. UAB came up with three takeaways and held Southern Miss to 4-of-13 success on third down conversion attempts.
The fact that Ole Miss is averaging 26.3 ppg is a bit deceiving when considering that it scored a total of 97 points against Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana to open the season. The team managed just 10 points against South Carolina in a loss and 23 points against Vanderbilt, the worst team in the SEC. Jevan Snead has only completed 46.8 percent of his passes for 868 yards and nine touchdowns against nine interceptions. He was expected to be a high first-round pick in the next NFL Draft, but Snead will need to play much better in the coming weeks to regain that status. Shay Hodge leads the Rebels with 19 catches for 290 yards and three touchdowns, while Brandon Bolden tops the ground attack with 308 yards. Snead was intercepted four times by Alabama last week, and his offense managed only 212 total yards. The quarterback actually led his team with 44 rushing yards, but that will provide little comfort considering his dismal 11-of-34 passing effort. Put simply, this offense has to improve in a hurry.
Opponents are scoring a mere 13.0 ppg against Ole Miss, which is surrendering only 290.0 ypg. The Rebels have been tough against both the run and the pass, a claim that most teams nationally can't make. They are giving up just 3.5 yards per rushing attempt and 9.9 yards per pass completion. Johnny Brown has made 39 total tackles to pace the Rebels, and Greg Hardy has three sacks. Injury caused Hardy to miss one game and limited him in others, but he is one of the nation's premier pass rushers when healthy. Yes, Ole Miss did allow a season-high 22 points to Alabama last week, but there are a couple of things that need to be mentioned. First, the Tide are the second-ranked team in the nation. Secondly, they only scored one touchdown, as the Rebels forced them to kick five field goals. Ole Miss permitted 354 total yards, but considering the fact that the defense was on the field for more than 38 minutes, that total isn't all that bad.
Snead has looked more like a clueless freshman than an NFL-caliber signal caller. Expect things to be different this weekend, as he will play well and lead his team to an easy win.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ole Miss 41, UAB 20
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