Overrated Conferences
The Overrated Teams report analyzes teams that have historically ranked higher in the preseason AP Poll than the final AP Poll. This report does the same thing for Conferences.Below are three tables broken out by year. I calculate the average differential (Avg Diff column) for all the teams in the preseason and final poll since the year indicated (e.g., Since 2000). I subtract the final rank from the preseason rank (i.e., preseason - final). A negative number means the team finished lower in the final poll than the preseason poll. I use 26 as the final ranking if a team in the preseason poll did not make the final poll. See Underrated Conferences for teams with a positive differential.
The number of teams ranked over the time period is contained in the Teams column. The Team by Team Diff column contains the preseason - final calculation for each team that was ranked. Click on a column header to sort the table.
Final note: If you think the outcome of the NCAA Tournament should help determine whether a team is overrated, the Coaches Poll would be a better poll to use. The Final Coaches Poll comes out after the NCAA Tournament unlike the the Final AP Poll, which is released before the NCAA Tournament. In some cases, highly ranked teams fall several positions in the Final Coaches Poll if they have a poor showing in the NCAA Tournament. (I don't have historical Preseason Coaches Polls so I can't include those results here yet.)
Overrated Since 2000
* Conferences must have at least 11 ranked teams to be included.
| Rank | Team | Teams | Avg Diff | Team by Team Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | 37 | -1.8 | 3, -11, -17, 3, 12, -9, 16, -12, 3, 9, -3, -9, -8, -18, 16, -18, 9, 3, 18, 7, -14, -3, 2, -11, -17, 15, 8, 7, -2, 0, -15, -21, -4, -7, 2, -6, 7 |
| 2 | Pac 10 | 33 | -1.1 | -4, 2, 2, -3, -21, -11, 2, 19, 15, -1, -12, -15, 8, -18, 18, 1, 14, -16, 12, -13, 9, -16, -1, -9, 13, 16, 3, -11, -9, -1, -14, 13, -8 |
| 3 | ACC | 38 | -0.9 | -6, -3, 8, 0, 1, -2, -15, -7, 0, -4, -1, 18, 9, 3, -9, -4, 7, 12, -11, -22, -7, -3, 8, 2, -3, -8, 4, 0, 16, -3, -11, -14, -2, 8, -5, 0, 4, 4 |
| 4 | Big Ten | 32 | -0.9 | -6, 0, 4, 2, 6, -17, -4, -11, -10, 12, -2, -5, -17, 5, 15, 5, -23, 0, 1, -2, 4, 5, -2, -22, 4, 20, 3, 6, -17, -10, 20, 6 |
| 5 | Big 12 | 34 | -0.3 | -5, 15, 9, 8, 5, -3, 22, -2, -18, -4, -1, 0, -5, -10, 0, -12, 21, -21, -11, -10, 1, 2, 9, -1, -7, -18, 14, 1, 10, 4, 0, 8, -1, -10 |
| 6 | Big East | 48 | -0.2 | -4, -12, -16, 9, 5, 19, -5, -12, -9, 5, 16, 17, -8, 1, 4, 13, -5, -13, -6, 13, 5, 1, -6, -5, -5, -9, 7, 12, -5, -19, 1, -8, 2, 3, 10, -6, 0, -8, -8, -4, 9, 10, -3, -7, 5, -14, 11, 10 |
Overrated Since 1990
* Conferences must have at least 21 ranked teams to be included.
| Rank | Team | Teams | Avg Diff | Team by Team Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACC | 83 | -1.3 | -10, -8, 0, 1, -3, -4, -10, 0, 6, -4, -2, 3, -7, 10, -1, -12, -10, -2, 0, -3, -3, 21, 1, -18, -2, -11, 2, -7, -5, 13, -5, 6, 2, 4, 4, -21, 3, 0, 6, 1, -2, 0, 9, -20, 9, -6, -3, 8, 0, 1, -2, -15, -7, 0, -4, -1, 18, 9, 3, -9, -4, 7, 12, -11, -22, -7, -3, 8, 2, -3, -8, 4, 0, 16, -3, -11, -14, -2, 8, -5, 0, 4, 4 |
| 2 | Pac 10 | 64 | -0.8 | -5, -5, -5, -2, 7, 18, 5, -2, 9, -4, -10, -10, 5, 10, -10, -8, -1, 15, 4, -2, -3, -3, -13, 4, 6, -3, -4, -12, 5, -14, 10, -4, 2, 2, -3, -21, -11, 2, 19, 15, -1, -12, -15, 8, -18, 18, 1, 14, -16, 12, -13, 9, -16, -1, -9, 13, 16, 3, -11, -9, -1, -14, 13, -8 |
| 3 | Big East | 87 | -0.8 | 5, 6, -17, -9, -14, 13, -16, -6, -11, -10, 5, -8, -14, -10, 0, 5, -11, 22, -13, -7, 11, 13, 1, 3, -7, 11, -14, -13, -2, 6, 5, -6, -1, 17, 16, 9, 1, 2, -19, -4, -12, -16, 9, 5, 19, -5, -12, -9, 5, 16, 17, -8, 1, 4, 13, -5, -13, -6, 13, 5, 1, -6, -5, -5, -9, 7, 12, -5, -19, 1, -8, 2, 3, 10, -6, 0, -8, -8, -4, 9, 10, -3, -7, 5, -14, 11, 10 |
| 4 | SEC | 80 | -0.7 | -5, -8, -12, 5, 17, -6, 4, -19, -2, 3, 18, 14, -3, 1, -5, 12, -16, -5, -2, 2, 8, -10, -10, -1, -13, -2, 20, 9, -7, 10, -7, 3, 9, 2, -11, -4, 3, 22, -5, -20, 8, -5, 16, 3, -11, -17, 3, 12, -9, 16, -12, 3, 9, -3, -9, -8, -18, 16, -18, 9, 3, 18, 7, -14, -3, 2, -11, -17, 15, 8, 7, -2, 0, -15, -21, -4, -7, 2, -6, 7 |
| 5 | Big 12 | 48 | -0.6 | 1, -7, -10, 2, 0, -4, -6, -14, -13, -15, 6, 8, 20, 14, -5, 15, 9, 8, 5, -3, 22, -2, -18, -4, -1, 0, -5, -10, 0, -12, 21, -21, -11, -10, 1, 2, 9, -1, -7, -18, 14, 1, 10, 4, 0, 8, -1, -10 |
| 6 | Big Ten | 82 | -0.4 | 5, 5, -22, -5, -3, 4, 5, 12, -2, 3, -2, -6, 4, -13, -6, 18, -6, -9, -9, -17, -10, 9, -1, 14, -13, -3, 20, -9, 8, -3, 19, -17, 7, -11, -9, -2, 14, 10, 4, 3, -10, 3, 5, 8, 12, -3, -2, 1, -5, 4, -6, 0, 4, 2, 6, -17, -4, -11, -10, 12, -2, -5, -17, 5, 15, 5, -23, 0, 1, -2, 4, 5, -2, -22, 4, 20, 3, 6, -17, -10, 20, 6 |
Overrated Since 1980
* Conferences must have at least 31 ranked teams to be included.
| Rank | Team | Teams | Avg Diff | Team by Team Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | 110 | -1.9 | 8, -7, 11, -10, 7, -9, -12, -13, -14, -8, 8, -10, -15, -1, -6, -8, 7, -16, -12, 8, -14, 4, -15, -12, -1, -11, 6, -3, -17, 3, -5, -8, -12, 5, 17, -6, 4, -19, -2, 3, 18, 14, -3, 1, -5, 12, -16, -5, -2, 2, 8, -10, -10, -1, -13, -2, 20, 9, -7, 10, -7, 3, 9, 2, -11, -4, 3, 22, -5, -20, 8, -5, 16, 3, -11, -17, 3, 12, -9, 16, -12, 3, 9, -3, -9, -8, -18, 16, -18, 9, 3, 18, 7, -14, -3, 2, -11, -17, 15, 8, 7, -2, 0, -15, -21, -4, -7, 2, -6, 7 |
| 2 | ACC | 124 | -0.9 | -14, 3, 7, 15, -5, 4, 0, 0, -3, -5, -3, 0, 7, 12, 14, -3, -4, 19, -7, -5, -9, 5, -6, -20, -9, -1, 9, 13, -8, 10, -4, 12, -13, -1, 1, -8, 13, -7, -5, -19, 9, -10, -8, 0, 1, -3, -4, -10, 0, 6, -4, -2, 3, -7, 10, -1, -12, -10, -2, 0, -3, -3, 21, 1, -18, -2, -11, 2, -7, -5, 13, -5, 6, 2, 4, 4, -21, 3, 0, 6, 1, -2, 0, 9, -20, 9, -6, -3, 8, 0, 1, -2, -15, -7, 0, -4, -1, 18, 9, 3, -9, -4, 7, 12, -11, -22, -7, -3, 8, 2, -3, -8, 4, 0, 16, -3, -11, -14, -2, 8, -5, 0, 4, 4 |
| 3 | Big Ten | 123 | -0.7 | 1, -4, -17, 7, -7, 3, -14, -15, 4, -19, -7, -14, 16, 20, -22, -10, 24, -2, -12, 10, 8, 4, 0, -3, 3, -6, -20, -1, -1, 10, -7, -9, -7, 6, 18, 0, -12, -9, -10, 16, 23, 5, 5, -22, -5, -3, 4, 5, 12, -2, 3, -2, -6, 4, -13, -6, 18, -6, -9, -9, -17, -10, 9, -1, 14, -13, -3, 20, -9, 8, -3, 19, -17, 7, -11, -9, -2, 14, 10, 4, 3, -10, 3, 5, 8, 12, -3, -2, 1, -5, 4, -6, 0, 4, 2, 6, -17, -4, -11, -10, 12, -2, -5, -17, 5, 15, 5, -23, 0, 1, -2, 4, 5, -2, -22, 4, 20, 3, 6, -17, -10, 20, 6 |
| 4 | Pac 10 | 83 | -0.6 | -4, 5, 23, -17, 22, 0, -16, -17, -7, 11, -17, -7, 11, 15, 10, 7, -8, -13, 4, -5, -5, -5, -2, 7, 18, 5, -2, 9, -4, -10, -10, 5, 10, -10, -8, -1, 15, 4, -2, -3, -3, -13, 4, 6, -3, -4, -12, 5, -14, 10, -4, 2, 2, -3, -21, -11, 2, 19, 15, -1, -12, -15, 8, -18, 18, 1, 14, -16, 12, -13, 9, -16, -1, -9, 13, 16, 3, -11, -9, -1, -14, 13, -8 |
| 5 | Big 12 | 48 | -0.6 | 1, -7, -10, 2, 0, -4, -6, -14, -13, -15, 6, 8, 20, 14, -5, 15, 9, 8, 5, -3, 22, -2, -18, -4, -1, 0, -5, -10, 0, -12, 21, -21, -11, -10, 1, 2, 9, -1, -7, -18, 14, 1, 10, 4, 0, 8, -1, -10 |
| 6 | Big East | 119 | -0.6 | -7, -9, -10, -1, 16, -18, -8, 15, 2, -11, 8, -3, 4, 0, -5, -5, 22, 5, 14, 4, -8, -10, -4, 1, 0, -14, 15, -1, -3, -3, -8, 22, 5, 6, -17, -9, -14, 13, -16, -6, -11, -10, 5, -8, -14, -10, 0, 5, -11, 22, -13, -7, 11, 13, 1, 3, -7, 11, -14, -13, -2, 6, 5, -6, -1, 17, 16, 9, 1, 2, -19, -4, -12, -16, 9, 5, 19, -5, -12, -9, 5, 16, 17, -8, 1, 4, 13, -5, -13, -6, 13, 5, 1, -6, -5, -5, -9, 7, 12, -5, -19, 1, -8, 2, 3, 10, -6, 0, -8, -8, -4, 9, 10, -3, -7, 5, -14, 11, 10 |
