Accuracy of the Preaseason AP Poll
The AP has been releasing a preseason poll since the 1961-1962 season. Below is a chart that measures the poll volatility between the Preseason and Final AP Polls back to 1961. You can see the intra-season volatility for each season by going to the Volatility tab of a Poll (see here).The results show that on average 43.5% of the poll changes. If the entire set of teams in the Preseason Poll were replaced by a new set of teams in the Final Poll, the volatility metric would be 100%. In a 25 team poll, there are 625 possible changes (325 if every team moved out, and another 325 to be replaced by a new set of teams.) 43.5% of 625 is about 272. That means that on average there are 272 positional changes between the Preseason and Final Poll (moving from #10 to #15 would count 5 spots). If no new teams entered the Final Poll, that means EACH TEAM in the Preseason poll would have to change on average 10 spots.
Predicting the future is hard, and this shows the Preseason Poll is not a good indicator of where teams will finish (on average).
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Go to the Discussion Forum
Mar 8, 2009
| Would love to see one of these for Football….I expect the numbers would be drastic as it sems like teams don’t move around the football polls as much as they do in Basketball. |
Mar 10, 2009
| I plan on adding this before next football season so stay tuned :-) |
